Bitcoin vs gold in 2026 has not been a close contest so far: through July 28 gold futures were down 7.0% for the year at $4,039 per ounce, while bitcoin was down 27.0% at $63,871 [1][2][3]. Both assets peaked in January and both fell hard, but gold's realized volatility (about 34% annualized in the first half) was two thirds of bitcoin's (about 51%), and the daily return correlation between the two was only 0.22 [1][2]. This note compares the two assets on price, drawdown, volatility and correlation, and sets out what the data says about the store-of-value debate, with data as of July 28, 2026.
Bitcoin vs gold in 2026: the price record
Gold entered 2026 at $4,341 an ounce after a 12.6% gain in the final quarter of 2025 [2]. It kept rising into late January, closing at $5,318 on January 29, a gain of 22.5% in four weeks, and was still $5,248 at the end of February [2]. The reversal was severe: gold closed the first quarter at $4,648, the second at $4,039, and touched a low close of $3,992 on July 16, for a peak-to-trough decline of 24.9% [2]. On July 28 it stood at $4,039, 7.0% below where it started the year [2].
Bitcoin (BTC) followed a similar shape at larger amplitude. It closed 2025 at $87,502, reached $89,504 on January 23 in DataPorium's 2026 daily series, and then fell to $58,559 on June 30, the low close of the year [1][3]. By July 28 it had recovered to $63,871, 27.0% below the start of the year [1][3]. Both assets can be tracked on DataPorium's commodities page and crypto market page.
| Measure (Dec 31, 2025 to Jul 28, 2026) | Gold (GC=F) | Bitcoin | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year-to-date return | -7.0% | -27.0% | +8.5% |
| Largest drawdown (closing basis) | -24.9% (Jan 29 to Jul 16) | -34.6% (Jan 23 to Jun 30) | -9.1% (Jan 27 to Mar 30) |
| Realized volatility, first half | 34.1% | 51.0% (from Jan 20) | 14.2% |
| Realized volatility, second quarter | 25.0% | 36.9% | 13.7% |
Sources: DataPorium price history for gold and bitcoin, FRED for the S&P 500 [1][2][4].
Volatility and correlation: how different are the two assets?
Gold's volatility in 2026 was unusually high by its own standards. Its annualized realized volatility from December 31 to June 30 was 34.1%, driven by the January surge and the February to March reversal, when the 30-day figure reached 43.5% at the end of January [2]. It settled to 25.0% in the second quarter and 26.6% on a 30-day basis at June 30 [2]. Bitcoin ran at 51.0% from January 20 to June 30 and 36.9% in the second quarter [1]. Bitcoin was therefore about 1.5 times as volatile as gold in both windows, a narrower gap than the 3.6 to 1 ratio between bitcoin and the S&P 500 [1][2][4].
Correlation stayed low
The daily return correlation between bitcoin and gold from January 20 to July 28 was 0.22 on 131 overlapping days; it was 0.18 in the first half and 0.31 in the second quarter [1][2]. Gold's correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.35 over the same period, and bitcoin's was 0.48 [1][2][4]. So bitcoin traded more like a risk asset than gold did, and gold traded more like a risk asset than its reputation suggests. Neither asset moved consistently with the other.
The gold-to-bitcoin exchange rate makes the relative performance concrete. One bitcoin bought 20.2 ounces of gold on December 31, 2025, 18.0 ounces on January 23, 14.7 ounces on March 31, 14.5 ounces on June 30 and 15.8 ounces on July 28 [1][2][3]. Bitcoin lost about a quarter of its gold value in the first half and has recovered a small part of that since.
What drove the moves
Two forces explain most of the year's action. The first is interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target at 3.50% to 3.75% at its June 17 meeting and described inflation as still above 2%, partly because of supply disruptions in energy [5]. Neither gold nor bitcoin pays interest, so a policy rate that stays higher for longer raises the cost of holding either. Deutsche Bank's June 23 note cited a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook as the first reason for bitcoin's fall below $60,000, along with ETF outflows and a rotation into artificial intelligence equities [6]. Gold's late-January peak and subsequent decline are consistent with the same repricing of rate expectations.
The second force is investor base. Gold's holders include central banks, jewelry buyers and long-standing physical investors whose demand does not depend on quarterly flows. Bitcoin's marginal buyer in 2026 has been the ETF investor, and the funds saw six consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling about $6 billion into late June [6]. That difference in holder behavior, not any difference in supply, explains most of the gap in drawdown depth.
- Gold's 2026 peak: $5,318 on January 29, up 22.5% year to date at that point [2].
- Gold's 2026 low: $3,992 on July 16, a 24.9% drawdown [2].
- Bitcoin's 2026 low: $58,559 on June 30, a 34.6% drawdown from January 23 [1].
- Bitcoin-gold daily correlation, January 20 to July 28: 0.22 [1][2].
In 2026 gold has been the steadier store of value by every measure, but a 25% drawdown shows that even gold is not a stable unit of account over months.
The store-of-value debate on the 2026 evidence
Advocates for bitcoin argue that a fixed supply schedule makes it a better long-run store of value than a metal whose above-ground stock grows each year. The 2026 data does not refute that long-run claim, but it does show that fixed supply says nothing about short-run price stability. An asset that loses 34.6% from peak to trough in five months cannot serve as a unit of account or a near-term liquidity reserve [1]. Gold, with a 24.9% drawdown and 34% volatility, was better but not immune [2].
The fairer conclusion is that both assets are hedges against currency debasement over long horizons and neither is a hedge against a repricing of real interest rates over short ones. Investors who hold either as a store of value are, in effect, taking a view that fiscal and monetary policy will be looser than markets expect. In a year when the Federal Reserve held rates steady and signaled concern about inflation, that view has cost money in both assets, with bitcoin's higher volatility magnifying the loss [1][2][5]. Investors may consider the 0.22 correlation as the more useful fact: the two assets diversify each other reasonably well, which argues for treating them as separate positions rather than substitutes.
Key takeaways
- Through July 28, 2026 gold was down 7.0% year to date at $4,039 and bitcoin was down 27.0% at $63,871 [1][2][3].
- Gold's largest drawdown was 24.9% (January 29 to July 16); bitcoin's was 34.6% (January 23 to June 30) [1][2].
- Realized volatility in the first half was 34.1% for gold and 51.0% for bitcoin, versus 14.2% for the S&P 500 [1][2][4].
- The bitcoin-gold daily return correlation was 0.22, so the two assets diversify each other rather than substitute for each other [1][2].
- A steady federal funds rate of 3.50% to 3.75% and above-target inflation weighed on both non-yielding assets [5][6].
Frequently asked questions
Has gold or bitcoin performed better in 2026?
Gold. Through July 28, 2026 gold futures were down 7.0% for the year at $4,039 an ounce, while bitcoin was down 27.0% at $63,871. Gold's peak-to-trough drawdown was 24.9% against 34.6% for bitcoin.
Are bitcoin and gold correlated?
Only weakly. The daily return correlation between bitcoin and gold futures from January 20 to July 28, 2026 was 0.22. Bitcoin was more correlated with the S&P 500 (0.48) than with gold.
How volatile is gold compared with bitcoin?
In the first half of 2026 gold's annualized realized volatility was 34.1% and bitcoin's was 51.0%, so bitcoin was about 1.5 times as volatile. Both were far above the S&P 500's 14.2%.
How many ounces of gold does one bitcoin buy?
About 15.8 ounces on July 28, 2026, down from 20.2 ounces on December 31, 2025 and a low of 14.5 ounces on June 30, 2026.
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Crypto Market Data (BTC-USD daily prices)
- [2] DataPorium Commodities (gold futures GC=F daily prices)
- [3] StatMuse Money: Bitcoin price on December 31, 2025
- [4] FRED: S&P 500 (SP500) daily close, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- [5] Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, June 17, 2026
- [6] CoinDesk: Bitcoin's June fall below $60,000 highlights new institutional headwinds, Deutsche Bank (June 23, 2026)
