Bitcoin's first half of 2026 ended with the price at $58,559 on June 30, down 33.1% from its December 31, 2025 close of $87,502, while the S&P 500 gained 9.6% over the same six months [1][2][4]. The peak-to-trough decline from the January 14 closing high of $96,929 was 39.6%, and realized volatility ran at roughly 51% annualized, about three and a half times the 14% recorded by the S&P 500 [1][2][3]. This note lays out the numbers behind that divergence: monthly closes, drawdowns, daily swings and the correlation between the two assets, using DataPorium price history and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) data as of July 1, 2026.
Bitcoin first half of 2026: the price path month by month
Bitcoin (BTC) began the year near $87,500 and rallied into mid January, closing at $96,929 on January 14, its highest close of the half [3][4]. The move did not hold. By January 31 the price was $78,621, a 10.2% loss for the month [1][3]. February brought the sharpest single day of the half: a 14.1% drop on February 5 to $62,702, followed by a 12.5% rebound the next day [1]. The quarter closed at $68,233 on March 31, a 22.0% decline from the start of the year [1][4].
The second quarter looked healthier for a time. Bitcoin rose to $76,304 by April 30 and reached its second-quarter high of $82,139 on May 10 [1]. The recovery then unwound. The price fell 6.5% on June 2, traded below $60,000 on June 5, and finished the quarter at its lowest close of the year, $58,559 on June 30 [1][5]. The second quarter alone cost 14.2%, and the full half cost 33.1% [1][4]. Readers can track the daily series on DataPorium's crypto market page.
| Date | Bitcoin close | S&P 500 close |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | $87,502 | 6,845.50 |
| January 31, 2026 | $78,621 | 6,939.03 (Jan 30) |
| March 31, 2026 | $68,233 | 6,528.52 |
| April 30, 2026 | $76,304 | 7,209.01 |
| May 31, 2026 | $73,580 | 7,580.06 (May 29) |
| June 30, 2026 | $58,559 | 7,499.36 |
Sources: DataPorium and StatMuse for bitcoin, FRED for the S&P 500 [1][2][3][4].
How deep were the drawdowns?
Measured from closing prices, bitcoin's largest drawdown of the half ran from the January 14 high of $96,929 to the June 30 low of $58,559, a 39.6% decline that had not been recovered when the half ended [1][3]. Within that path there were two distinct legs. The first, from January 14 to February 5, removed 35.3% in just over three weeks. The second, from the May 10 high of $82,139 to June 30, removed 28.7% [1].
The S&P 500 also had a difficult first quarter, but on a different scale. Its largest drawdown was 9.1%, from a January 27 close of 6,978.60 to a March 30 close of 6,343.72, the lowest close of the half [2]. It then rose 14.9% in the second quarter to close June 30 at 7,499.36, having set a record 7,609.78 on June 2 [2]. In short, the stock index fell about one quarter as far as bitcoin and had fully recovered by the end of May, while bitcoin was still setting new lows in late June.
Bitcoin also remained far below its October 2025 record. Deutsche Bank noted on June 23 that the price was more than 50% below that peak [5].
Volatility: bitcoin vs the S&P 500
Annualized volatility, computed from daily log returns, gives the cleanest comparison. From January 20 (the start of DataPorium's 2026 daily series) to June 30, bitcoin's realized volatility was 51.0% [1]. The S&P 500's realized volatility from December 31 to June 30 was 14.2% [2]. The ratio was about 3.6 to 1.
Volatility fell as the half went on
Bitcoin's volatility was front-loaded. From January 20 to March 31 it ran at 65.2% annualized; from March 31 to June 30 it fell to 36.9%, and the 30-day reading at June 30 was 44.1% [1]. The S&P 500 was steadier, at 14.4% in the first quarter and 13.7% in the second [2]. A crude count tells the same story. Bitcoin had eight days with a move of 5% or more in either direction between January 20 and June 30. The S&P 500 had four days with a move of 2% or more over the whole half, the largest being a 2.9% gain on March 31 and a 2.6% loss on June 5 [1][2].
- Largest bitcoin daily loss: 14.1% on February 5 [1]
- Largest bitcoin daily gain: 12.5% on February 6 [1]
- Largest S&P 500 daily loss: 2.6% on June 5 [2]
- Largest S&P 500 daily gain: 2.9% on March 31 [2]
Correlation with equities: partial, not total
The daily return correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 from January 20 to June 30 was 0.48 on 112 overlapping trading days, and 0.42 in the second quarter [1][2]. That is a meaningful positive link but far from lockstep. The divergence in outcomes shows it: the two assets shared a weak first quarter, but in the second quarter stocks rose 14.9% while bitcoin fell 14.2% [1][2].
Deutsche Bank's June 23 analysis pointed to three reasons for the gap: a Federal Reserve that markets now expected to raise rates rather than cut them, six consecutive weeks of net outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds totaling about $6 billion, and a rotation of speculative capital toward artificial intelligence equities [5]. The Federal Open Market Committee's June 17 statement, which held the federal funds target at 3.50% to 3.75% and described inflation as still above the 2% objective, fits that picture [6]. Higher-for-longer real rates raise the opportunity cost of holding an asset with no cash flow, and that cost showed up in bitcoin's price before it showed up in equities.
Bitcoin lost a third of its value in the first half of 2026 with volatility roughly 3.6 times that of the S&P 500, while the stock index rose nearly 10%.
What the numbers mean for allocation decisions
The first half of 2026 was a reminder that bitcoin's return profile is not a leveraged version of equities. The correlation of 0.48 means roughly a quarter of bitcoin's daily variance can be explained by stock market moves; the rest is specific to the asset, including fund flows, leverage in derivatives markets and shifts in rate expectations [1][2][5]. Investors who size positions by volatility rather than by dollar amount would have held about one quarter as much bitcoin as S&P 500 exposure to equalize risk. Those who treat bitcoin as a small satellite position, funded from savings rather than borrowing, were best placed to sit through a 40% drawdown without forced selling. Investors may consider that framing when reading second-half data.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin closed the first half of 2026 at $58,559, down 33.1% from $87,502 at the end of 2025 [1][4].
- The largest drawdown was 39.6%, from the January 14 close of $96,929 to June 30 [1][3].
- Realized volatility was about 51% annualized versus 14% for the S&P 500, which gained 9.6% [1][2].
- The daily return correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.48, positive but far from complete [1][2].
- Rate expectations, ETF outflows and a rotation toward AI equities were cited as the main drivers of the gap [5][6].
Frequently asked questions
How much did bitcoin fall in the first half of 2026?
Bitcoin fell 33.1%, from $87,502 on December 31, 2025 to $58,559 on June 30, 2026, according to DataPorium and StatMuse price data. The decline from the January 14 closing high of $96,929 was 39.6%.
Was bitcoin more volatile than the S&P 500 in 2026?
Yes. Bitcoin's annualized realized volatility from January 20 to June 30 was about 51%, compared with about 14% for the S&P 500 over the first half. Bitcoin had eight daily moves of 5% or more; the S&P 500 had none.
Did bitcoin move with the stock market in 2026?
Only partly. The daily return correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 was 0.48 in the first half. Both fell in the first quarter, but in the second quarter the S&P 500 rose 14.9% while bitcoin fell 14.2%.
What was the S&P 500's return in the first half of 2026?
The S&P 500 rose 9.6% on a price basis, from 6,845.50 to 7,499.36, with a record close of 7,609.78 on June 2 and a maximum drawdown of 9.1%, based on FRED data.
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Crypto Market Data (BTC-USD daily prices)
- [2] FRED: S&P 500 (SP500) daily close, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- [3] StatMuse Money: Bitcoin price, January 2026 daily closes
- [4] StatMuse Money: Bitcoin price on December 31, 2025
- [5] CoinDesk: Bitcoin's June fall below $60,000 highlights new institutional headwinds, Deutsche Bank (June 23, 2026)
- [6] Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, June 17, 2026
