Data center electricity demand is now the main reason US power consumption is growing again. The Energy Information Administration's July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 7, 2026, projects US electricity consumption of 11.70 billion kilowatt-hours per day in 2026 and 12.05 billion in 2027, up from 11.49 billion in 2025, which works out to growth of about 1.8% this year and 3.0% next year [1]. The companies selling that power are reporting record results: Vistra (VST) posted first-quarter 2026 revenue of $5.64 billion, up from $3.93 billion a year earlier, and Constellation Energy (CEG) reported revenue of $11.12 billion against $6.79 billion [2][4]. This note explains what the demand numbers mean for utilities, independent power producers and the grid.
How fast is data center electricity demand growing in 2026?
After more than a decade of flat consumption, the EIA's July outlook shows a clear break in trend. Its Table 1 puts US electricity consumption at 11.49 billion kilowatt-hours per day in 2025, 11.70 billion in 2026 and 12.05 billion in 2027 [1]. The 2027 step of about 3.0% is large by the standards of a mature grid, and the EIA attributes the increase in natural gas burn for power to "rising overall electricity demand, additions to the natural gas generation fleet, and relatively low natural gas prices" [1].
The demand side is visible in corporate budgets. Meta Platforms (META) raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $125 billion to $145 billion on April 29, 2026, and attributed part of the increase to additional data center costs [5]. Every dollar of that capital that becomes a server rack needs a firm power supply, which is why hyperscalers are signing long-term contracts directly with generators.
What is happening to power prices and the generation mix?
Higher demand has not yet meant higher wholesale prices this summer. The EIA forecasts US wholesale electricity prices this summer will be $4 per megawatt-hour lower than last year, averaging about $45 per megawatt-hour, mainly because natural gas delivered to power plants is cheaper [1]. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is expected to average close to $3.60 per million British thermal units over 2026 and 2027, which is about 10% below the 2016 to 2025 average after adjusting for inflation [1].
Retail customers are still paying more. The EIA's Table 2 shows the average residential price rising from 17.30 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2025 to 18.29 cents in 2026, the commercial price from 13.41 to 13.91 cents, and the industrial price from 8.62 to 8.92 cents [1]. The gap between falling wholesale prices and rising retail prices reflects transmission, distribution and capacity costs, which is where grid investment shows up on customer bills.
Natural gas carries the load
The EIA expects natural gas to hold a 40% share of US generation in 2025, 2026 and 2027, with coal falling from 17% to 15%, nuclear steady at 18%, and solar rising from 7% to 8% and then 9% [1]. Natural gas consumption in the power sector is forecast to rise 2% in 2026 and another 4% in 2027 to a record 38.1 billion cubic feet per day, and generators report that gas-fired capacity will reach 508 gigawatts by the end of 2027, up 3% from 2025 [1]. Power sector coal use is expected to fall 9% in 2026 [1].
| EIA July 2026 STEO | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity consumption (billion kWh per day) | 11.49 | 11.70 | 12.05 |
| Natural gas share of generation | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Solar share of generation | 7% | 8% | 9% |
| Residential price (cents per kWh) | 17.30 | 18.29 | 18.70 |
All figures in the table are from the EIA's July 2026 outlook [1].
Which power producers are collecting the data center premium?
Independent power producers with nuclear and gas fleets in constrained markets are the clearest winners. Vistra reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $1,029 million, reversing a loss of $268 million in the first quarter of 2025, and ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $1,494 million, a record for a first quarter [2][4]. The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance for ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion [2]. Vistra also announced long-term power purchase agreements with Meta at its PJM nuclear sites and is targeting the close of its acquisition of the 5,500 megawatt Cogentrix natural gas portfolio in the second half of 2026; it said both are expected to begin contributing to adjusted EBITDA in 2027 [2].
Constellation, which completed its acquisition of Calpine in January 2026, reported adjusted operating earnings of $2.74 per share for the first quarter of 2026, up from $2.14 a year earlier, and affirmed full-year guidance of $11.00 to $12.00 per share [3]. Its nuclear fleet produced 44,666 gigawatt-hours in the quarter, and the Public Utility Commission of Texas approved a net metering application for a CyrusOne data center co-located at Constellation's Freestone site, where the company signed a 380 megawatt agreement with an exclusive option on a second 380 megawatt phase [3].
- Vistra: revenue $5.64 billion, net income $1,029 million, 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion [2][4].
- Constellation: revenue $11.12 billion, adjusted operating EPS $2.74, 2026 guidance $11.00 to $12.00 per share [3].
- Meta: 2026 capital expenditures of $125 billion to $145 billion, part of it for data centers [5].
How are utility and energy stocks pricing the demand story?
DataPorium's sector data shows NASDAQ-listed utilities trading at an average price to earnings ratio of about 27.6 as of July 6, 2026, well above the energy sector at about 16.9, and the utilities group fell 1.36% on July 14, 2026 as investors weighed the summer price outlook [6]. Readers can follow EIA generation and fuel data on DataPorium's energy dashboard and compare power producers on the stock market pages.
The data center boom is lifting volumes and contract prices for generators with firm capacity, while lower natural gas costs keep wholesale power cheap, so the profit is flowing to owners of existing nuclear and gas plants rather than to ratepayers or new entrants.
From a policy standpoint, the numbers favor letting private generators contract directly with large customers. The Meta and CyrusOne agreements put the cost of new demand on the companies creating it rather than on households, and the Texas approval of co-location at Freestone is an example of regulators moving quickly. The fair counterpoint is that transmission and capacity charges are still rising for residential customers, up about 5.7% in the EIA's 2026 price forecast, so utility commissions will face pressure to make sure data center customers pay their full share of grid upgrades [1].
Key takeaways
- The EIA projects US electricity consumption rising from 11.49 billion kWh per day in 2025 to 12.05 billion in 2027, with data centers as a leading driver [1].
- Wholesale power is expected to average about $45 per MWh this summer, $4 lower than last summer, while residential retail prices rise to 18.29 cents per kWh in 2026 [1].
- Natural gas keeps a 40% generation share, with gas-fired capacity reaching 508 GW by the end of 2027 [1].
- Vistra and Constellation reported sharply higher first-quarter 2026 revenue and affirmed full-year guidance, supported by data center contracts [2][3][4].
- NASDAQ utilities traded at an average P/E near 27.6 as of July 6, 2026, a premium to energy, according to DataPorium [6].
Frequently asked questions
How much electricity will data centers use in 2026?
The EIA does not publish a data center only figure in the STEO, but it projects total US consumption of 11.70 billion kWh per day in 2026, up about 1.8% from 2025, and 12.05 billion in 2027, with data centers cited as a primary driver [1].
Will data centers raise my electricity bill?
The EIA expects the average residential price to rise from 17.30 to 18.29 cents per kWh in 2026 even though wholesale prices fall, because grid and capacity costs are increasing [1].
Which power companies benefit most from data center demand?
Owners of existing nuclear and gas plants in constrained markets: Vistra guided to $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion of 2026 adjusted EBITDA and Constellation to $11.00 to $12.00 of adjusted EPS, both supported by data center agreements [2][3].
Is natural gas or solar meeting the new demand?
Both, but gas carries the base: the EIA sees gas at 40% of generation through 2027 and solar rising from 7% to 9% over the same period [1].
Sources & References
- [1] EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026 (PDF, released July 7, 2026)
- [2] Vistra Reports First Quarter 2026 Results (May 7, 2026)
- [3] Constellation Reports First Quarter 2026 Results, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K (SEC EDGAR)
- [4] Vistra Corp. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (SEC EDGAR)
- [5] Meta Platforms Q1 2026 Results, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K (SEC EDGAR)
- [6] DataPorium Energy and Stock Market data (sector performance and P/E)
