Dollar-cost averaging into bitcoin (BTC) with $100 on the first day of every month from January 2022 through July 2026 would have cost $5,500, bought 0.1317 BTC at an average price of $41,777, and been worth $8,403 on July 11, 2026, a gain of 52.8% [1]. The same plan started in January 2023 was up 27.9%, but plans started in January 2024 and January 2025 were down 14.7% and 27.3%, because bitcoin closed at $63,831 on July 11, 2026, about 49% below its October 5, 2025 peak of $124,720 [1]. DataPorium's daily series shows the same July 11 close of $63,802 [2]. The lesson from the data is not that averaging in beats a lump sum, but that it changes when an investor can be wrong and by how much.
How the dollar-cost averaging into bitcoin test was built
The test uses the Coinbase bitcoin price series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), which runs daily from December 2014 [1]. Each plan buys $100 of bitcoin at the price on the first day of the month (or the next available day) and holds. No fees, spreads or taxes are included, so real results would be slightly lower. All plans are valued at the July 11, 2026 price of $63,831 [1].
| Plan start | Monthly buys | Invested | Average cost per BTC | Value on July 11, 2026 | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2022 | 55 | $5,500 | $41,777 | $8,403 | +52.8% |
| January 2023 | 43 | $4,300 | $49,889 | $5,502 | +27.9% |
| January 2024 | 31 | $3,100 | $74,800 | $2,645 | -14.7% |
| January 2025 | 19 | $1,900 | $87,821 | $1,381 | -27.3% |
Source: FRED series CBBTCUSD, DataPorium calculations [1].
What the 2022 to 2026 path did to each plan
The four and a half years covered two full swings. Bitcoin began 2022 at $47,749, fell to $15,756 on November 21, 2022, a 76.7% drop from the November 8, 2021 high, and ended 2022 at $16,531 [1]. It closed 2023 at $42,301 and 2024 at $94,384, reached $124,720 on October 5, 2025, ended 2025 at $87,696, and then fell to $58,586 on June 30, 2026, a 53.0% drawdown from the peak [1]. In DataPorium's series the June 30 close was $58,559, and the worst single day of 2026 was February 5, when bitcoin fell 14.1%, followed by a 12.5% rebound the next day [2].
Why the 2022 plan is ahead and the 2025 plan is behind
The January 2022 plan made all 12 of its 2022 purchases at prices between $16,981 and $47,749, and every 2023 purchase below $39,000 [1]. Those cheap purchases pulled its average cost down to $41,777, well under the July 2026 price. The January 2025 plan never bought below $59,882, its first-of-month purchases in 2025 ranged from $82,490 to $120,621, and its average cost of $87,821 sits above the current price [1]. Averaging in does not remove the risk of starting near a top; it only spreads it across the months that follow.
Lump sum versus monthly buying
A single purchase at the start of each plan tells a different story. $1 invested on January 1, 2022 was up 33.7% by July 11, 2026, less than the monthly plan's 52.8%, because the monthly plan kept buying through the 2022 bear market [1]. A lump sum on January 1, 2023 at $16,615 gained 284.2%, far more than the monthly plan's 27.9%, because that day turned out to be close to the low [1]. A lump sum on January 1, 2024 gained 44.3% versus the monthly plan's loss of 14.7%, and a lump sum on January 1, 2025 lost 34.1% versus the monthly plan's 27.3% [1]. The pattern is consistent with basic arithmetic: when prices rise after the start date, the lump sum wins; when they fall first, averaging wins.
- Averaging in helped when the start date was near a peak (early 2022, early 2025).
- Averaging in hurt when the start date was near a bottom (early 2023).
- Over the full period, no monthly plan avoided a period of unrealized loss.
What the volatility means for a monthly plan
Bitcoin's annualized volatility of daily returns over the three years to July 11, 2026 was about 46%, and 41.1% over the last 12 months of that window, roughly three times the level of a broad U.S. stock index [1]. FINRA describes crypto assets as risky and often extremely volatile, warns that the risk of losing all of an investment is significant, and notes that recovery of stolen crypto assets is rare [4]. A monthly plan does not lower those risks; it lowers the chance that one badly timed purchase defines the outcome. Investors who want to see the daily closes behind these numbers can use DataPorium's crypto price pages, which showed a 52-week range for bitcoin from a $57,748 low to a $126,198 high [2].
CoinGecko records bitcoin's all-time high at $126,080, and a maximum supply of 21 million coins [3]. The all-time high matters for a plan because it marks the highest cost any monthly purchase could have carried; the January 2025 plan's costliest purchase was $120,621 on October 1, 2025 [1].
What investors may consider before starting
Three practical points follow from the data. First, the plan should be sized so that a drawdown of half or more, which happened twice in this period, does not force a sale [1]. Second, the average cost is the number to track, not the last purchase price; the 2022 plan's $41,777 average is what kept it profitable through a 53% decline [1]. Third, each purchase creates its own tax lot with its own holding period, so record keeping grows with every month. None of this is a forecast; the same plan started in a different month would show different results, and past price paths do not predict future ones.
Monthly buying into bitcoin from 2022 turned a 76.7% crash into a 52.8% gain by July 2026, while the same plan started in 2025 was still 27.3% underwater.
Key takeaways
- $100 a month from January 2022 grew to $8,403 by July 11, 2026, a 52.8% return at an average cost of $41,777 per bitcoin [1].
- Plans started in January 2024 and January 2025 were down 14.7% and 27.3% at the same date [1].
- Bitcoin fell 76.7% from November 2021 to November 2022 and 53.0% from October 2025 to June 2026 [1].
- Lump sums beat monthly buying when prices rose after the start date and lost when prices fell first [1].
- Averaging in spreads timing risk; it does not reduce bitcoin's roughly 41% to 46% annualized volatility [1].
Frequently asked questions
Does dollar-cost averaging into bitcoin work?
It depends on the start date. $100 a month from January 2022 was up 52.8% on July 11, 2026, while the same plan from January 2025 was down 27.3%, because the later plan bought mostly above the July 2026 price of $63,831 [1].
Is a lump sum better than monthly buying for bitcoin?
Historically the lump sum won when the price rose after the purchase, such as a 284.2% gain from January 1, 2023, and lost when the price fell first, such as a 34.1% loss from January 1, 2025 [1].
How big have bitcoin drawdowns been since 2021?
Bitcoin fell 76.7% from its November 8, 2021 high to $15,756 on November 21, 2022, and 53.0% from $124,720 on October 5, 2025 to $58,586 on June 30, 2026 [1].
What was the average cost of a monthly bitcoin plan started in 2022?
Buying $100 on the first of each month from January 2022 through July 2026 produced an average cost of $41,777 per bitcoin across 55 purchases [1].
