Oil prices in mid-2026 have traveled a long road in a short time. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures closed at $112.95 per barrel on April 7, fell to $68.55 on July 6, and then jumped 9.4% in a single session to $78.14 on July 13, 2026, according to DataPorium commodity price data [1]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) explains the decline with three facts: shut-in production is returning after the supply disruptions in the Middle East that began in late February, global inventory draws are slowing from 5 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter to 2.2 million b/d in the third, and the agency now expects Brent to average $74 per barrel in the third quarter, $27 lower than it forecast in June [2]. This note walks through supply, demand and inventories as of July 13, 2026.
How oil prices in mid-2026 moved month by month
The EIA's monthly spot price series shows the scale of the swing. WTI averaged $91.38 per barrel in March, $100.32 in April, $102.13 in May and $84.81 in June 2026, compared with $68.17 in June 2025 [3]. Brent followed the same path, averaging $117.29 in April, $107.14 in May and $85.40 in June [3]. The EIA notes that Brent's June average was $22 below May and $32 below the April peak [2].
Daily futures data sharpen the picture. After the April high, WTI closed at $107.77 on May 19, $96.02 on June 3 and $69.50 on June 30 [1]. The first week of July brought the low: $68.69 on July 2 and $68.55 on July 6, before a partial recovery to $71.41 on July 10 and the sharp move to $78.14 on July 13 [1]. The size of the July 13 rebound is a reminder that the market still assigns a meaningful probability to renewed supply disruptions even as the physical balance loosens.
Supply: shut-in barrels are coming back
The July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, published July 7, raised its expectations for global oil production for the rest of the year after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed following an agreement signed on June 18 [2]. The EIA now expects most crude oil production in the affected region to return to near pre-disruption averages by the end of 2026, with the majority of shut-in output back online in the first quarter of 2027 [2].
U.S. supply is doing its part. Weekly field production of crude oil reached 13.86 million b/d in the week ending July 3, 2026, up from 13.39 million b/d in the same week of 2025, an increase of about 475,000 b/d or 3.5% [6]. The EIA projects U.S. crude oil production will average 13.8 million b/d in 2026 and 14.0 million b/d in 2027 [2]. High prices in the spring did what high prices usually do: they pulled more barrels out of the ground, and private producers responded faster than any policy could have.
Inventories: the draw is real but slowing
Inventories are where the disruption shows up most clearly. U.S. commercial crude oil stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell from 464.7 million barrels on April 3, 2026 to 408.4 million barrels on June 26, a decline of 56.4 million barrels in 12 weeks [4]. Stocks ticked up to 411.4 million barrels in the week ending July 3, which was still 14.7 million barrels, or 3.4%, below the 426.0 million barrels held a year earlier [4].
U.S. crude oil balance, week ending July 3, 2026
| Indicator | Week ending July 3, 2026 | Same week 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial crude stocks (million barrels) | 411.4 | 426.0 |
| Crude oil production (million b/d) | 13.86 | 13.39 |
| Refinery utilization (percent of capacity) | 95.8% | 94.7% |
Source: EIA weekly petroleum data [4][5][6].
Refiners have been running hard. Utilization stood at 95.8% of operable capacity in the week ending July 3 and 96.6% the week before, compared with 94.7% a year earlier [5]. High runs keep crude stocks low even as production rises, which is why the weekly crude number has not yet turned decisively higher.
Globally, the EIA expects inventories to fall by 2.2 million b/d in the third quarter of 2026, compared with more than 7 million b/d in its June forecast and 5 million b/d in the second quarter [2]. The agency expects rising production in 2027 to shift the market back to the oversupplied state that prevailed before the disruption [2].
Demand and the EIA price forecast
The EIA's headline forecast has Brent averaging $82 per barrel in 2026 and $65 in 2027, down 14% and 18% respectively from its June outlook [2]. The path runs through $74 in the third quarter of 2026 and steady inventory accumulation in 2027 [2]. For consumers, the agency expects U.S. retail gasoline to average $3.64 per gallon in 2026 and $3.09 in 2027 [2].
Investors may consider two counterpoints. First, the forecast assumes shut-in production returns on schedule; the July 13 price jump shows how quickly the market reprices when that assumption is questioned. Second, U.S. crude inventories remain below year-ago levels, so any renewed disruption would start from a thinner cushion than in 2025. On the other side, the strong U.S. production response and a return to oversupply in 2027 argue for lower prices over a 12 to 18 month horizon.
Returning supply and slower inventory draws pulled oil below $70 in early July, but the rebound to $78 shows the market has not yet fully priced a durable recovery.
Key takeaways
- WTI closed at $78.14 on July 13, 2026, after a low of $68.55 on July 6 and a high of $112.95 on April 7 [1].
- The EIA's July outlook cuts Brent to $82 for 2026 and $65 for 2027, with a third-quarter average of $74 [2].
- Global inventory draws are expected to slow to 2.2 million b/d in the third quarter from 5 million b/d in the second [2].
- U.S. commercial crude stocks were 411.4 million barrels on July 3, 3.4% below a year earlier, while production reached 13.86 million b/d [4][6].
- Refinery utilization near 96% is keeping crude inventories tight even as supply improves [5].
Frequently asked questions
Why did oil prices fall so fast in June and early July 2026?
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed after a June 18 agreement, the EIA raised its global production outlook, and expected inventory draws shrank from more than 7 million b/d to 2.2 million b/d for the third quarter, which pulled Brent from an April average of $117 to $85 in June [2][3].
What is the EIA oil price forecast for the rest of 2026?
The July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent at $74 per barrel in the third quarter, $82 for the full year 2026 and $65 in 2027 as inventories rebuild [2].
How low are U.S. crude oil inventories in July 2026?
Commercial crude stocks were 411.4 million barrels in the week ending July 3, 2026, down 14.7 million barrels from a year earlier and 53 million barrels below the early April level [4].
Is U.S. oil production still growing in 2026?
Yes. Weekly production reached 13.86 million b/d in early July 2026, about 3.5% above the same week of 2025, and the EIA expects annual averages of 13.8 million b/d in 2026 and 14.0 million b/d in 2027 [2][6].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Commodities: WTI crude oil futures (CL=F)
- [2] EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026
- [3] EIA, Cushing OK WTI Spot Price FOB, Monthly
- [4] EIA, Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil
- [5] EIA, Weekly U.S. Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity
- [6] EIA, Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil
