The Phoenix housing market is flat to slightly down, not falling apart. As of May 31, 2026, the Zillow Home Value Index for the Phoenix, AZ metro was $444,118, 1.6% below the $451,560 of May 2025, while the median sale price held at $455,000 [1]. Typical rents were unchanged year over year at about $1,717, inventory of 26,019 homes was 2.3% lower than a year earlier, and 33% of listings carried a price cut [1]. With the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.49% in the week of July 9, 2026, the metro is a balanced market in which patient buyers have leverage and sellers must price carefully [2].
Phoenix home values: small decline, wide spread by segment
Phoenix ran up sharply through 2022, gave back part of that gain, and has spent 2025 and 2026 drifting sideways. The metro-wide typical home value of $444,118 in May 2026 compares with $451,560 a year earlier, a 1.6% decline [1]. The seasonally adjusted series was $445,131, and the median sale price in May was $455,000 against $457,250 in May 2025, a 0.5% dip [1]. Prices are therefore essentially flat in nominal terms and down modestly after inflation.
The spread between segments is more informative than the headline. The top third of the market was unchanged at $727,777, while the bottom third fell 2.4% to $328,711 and condos fell 3.5% to $278,029 [1]. Single-family homes slipped 1.7% to $455,134 [1]. Entry-level homes and condos compete most directly with the new apartment supply and with new-build homes on the metro's edges, which is why they are the softest part of the market.
Monthly payment on the typical Phoenix home
Zillow's estimated principal-and-interest payment with 20% down on the typical Phoenix home was $2,237 in May 2026, down 5.5% from $2,366 a year earlier, and the total monthly payment including taxes and insurance was $2,705, down from $2,831 [1]. The national 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.49% in the week ending July 9, 2026, within the 6.36% to 6.55% range seen since May [2]. Because Arizona effective property tax rates are low, the gap between the loan payment and the total payment is smaller in Phoenix than in Texas or Illinois metros.
Phoenix rents and rent yield in 2026
Rents have stopped rising but have not collapsed. The Zillow Observed Rent Index for all homes and apartments in the metro was $1,717 in May 2026, compared with $1,723 in May 2025, a 0.3% decline [1]. The two halves of the rental market moved in opposite directions: single-family rent rose 1.0% to $2,302, while apartment rent fell 1.6% to $1,515 [1]. Phoenix has absorbed a large wave of new multifamily deliveries, and apartment owners are competing on price while single-family rentals remain scarce.
The gross rent yield on a typical single-family rental is about 6.1%: twelve months of rent at $2,302 equals $27,626 on a $455,134 home [1]. Property taxes take a small share of that in Maricopa County. DataPorium's property tax data shows median effective rates of 0.33% in ZIP 85251 (Scottsdale) and 85201 (Mesa), 0.34% in 85040 (South Phoenix), 0.37% in 85301 (Glendale), 0.44% in 85253 (Paradise Valley) and 0.48% in 85018 (Arcadia) [4]. Low carrying costs are one reason Phoenix has long attracted out-of-state landlords, and they help explain why values have held better than in Austin despite similar supply growth.
Inventory, days to pending and price cuts
Supply peaked in the spring and is now easing. Active listings reached 27,060 in March 2026, the highest reading of the past year, then fell to 26,695 in April and 26,019 in May, which is 2.3% below the 26,638 listings of May 2025 [1]. The median time to pending was 35 days in May 2026, the same as May 2025, after 28 days in March and 30 days in April as the spring season passed [1]. Price cuts remain common but less so than a year ago: 33% of listings had a price reduction in May 2026, down from 37% in May 2025 and 35% in April [1].
- Active listings: 26,019 in May 2026, versus 26,638 in May 2025 and a March 2026 peak of 27,060 [1]
- Median days to pending: 35, unchanged from a year earlier [1]
- Share of listings with a price cut: 33%, versus 37% a year earlier [1]
- Median sale price: $455,000, versus $457,250 a year earlier [1]
Most and least expensive ZIP codes in the Phoenix metro
Phoenix has one of the widest price ranges of any large metro, from Paradise Valley estates to older neighborhoods west of downtown. The table lists Zillow's smoothed typical home value for May 2026 and the median effective property tax rate for each ZIP code from DataPorium [1][4].
| ZIP code | Area | Typical home value, May 2026 | Median effective property tax |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85253 | Paradise Valley | $3,217,466 | 0.44% |
| 85262 | North Scottsdale | $1,532,651 | 0.38% |
| 85018 | Arcadia (Phoenix) | $978,417 | 0.48% |
| 85251 | Old Town Scottsdale | $516,475 | 0.33% |
| 85201 | Mesa (west) | $358,539 | 0.33% |
| 85040 | South Phoenix | $321,186 | 0.34% |
| 85301 | Glendale | $310,774 | 0.37% |
| 85009 | West Phoenix | $277,089 | 0.45% |
The typical Paradise Valley home is worth more than eleven times the typical home in ZIP 85009, yet the effective tax rates are within a few tenths of a percentage point of each other [1][4]. Buyers looking for values below the metro median tend to find them in west Phoenix, Glendale and west Mesa, while Scottsdale and Arcadia set the ceiling. These ZIPs and every other in the metro can be compared on DataPorium's housing market data, which tracks Zillow values, rents, inventory and days to pending at the ZIP level [1].
Population, income and what it means for buyers and investors
Demand fundamentals remain firm. The Census Bureau estimates the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro population at 5,228,938 in 2025, up 1.1% from 5,169,873 in 2024 and 7.3% above the 4,875,256 recorded in 2020 [3]. Within the city of Phoenix, the 2024 American Community Survey shows a median household income of $81,332, a population of 1,642,323 and a homeownership rate of 57.3% [4]. Steady in-migration and low property taxes support the market; the counterpoint is that the metro remains heavily exposed to homebuilder supply, which caps price gains whenever builders offer incentives.
Phoenix has settled into a balanced market where values drift slightly lower, rents hold and low carrying costs keep investors interested.
For buyers, flat prices and a third of sellers cutting asking prices make this a reasonable time to negotiate, and the monthly payment on the typical home is about 4.5% lower than a year ago [1]. For investors, a 6.1% gross yield on single-family rentals with effective taxes near 0.4% compares well with most large metros, though underwriting should assume flat rents given the apartment pipeline [1][4]. Zillow's 12-month home value forecast for the metro is refreshed each month and can be read next to the current values on the DataPorium market page [1]. Property-level listings, valuations and neighborhood data are available through DataPorium's real estate module [4].
Key takeaways
- Phoenix's typical home value was $444,118 in May 2026, down 1.6% year over year, while the median sale price held at $455,000 [1].
- Typical rent was flat at $1,717; single-family rents rose 1.0% and apartment rents fell 1.6% [1].
- Inventory of 26,019 homes is 2.3% below a year ago after a March peak; 33% of listings had a price cut [1].
- Paradise Valley (85253) leads at about $3.2 million; west Phoenix (85009) is lowest in the sample at about $277,000 [1].
- Metro population reached 5.23 million in 2025, and the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.49% in early July 2026 [2][3].
Frequently asked questions
Are home prices falling in Phoenix in 2026?
Slightly. The Zillow Home Value Index for the Phoenix metro was $444,118 in May 2026, 1.6% below May 2025, while the median sale price was $455,000, down 0.5% [1].
What is the average rent in Phoenix in 2026?
The typical asking rent across all homes and apartments in the Phoenix metro was $1,717 in May 2026, essentially unchanged from a year earlier; single-family rentals averaged $2,302 [1].
Is Phoenix a good market for rental property investors?
The typical single-family rental produced a gross yield of about 6.1% in May 2026, and median effective property tax rates in the sampled ZIP codes ranged from 0.33% to 0.48%, which keeps carrying costs low [1][4].
What is the most expensive ZIP code in the Phoenix area?
Among the ZIPs reviewed, 85253 (Paradise Valley) had the highest typical home value at about $3.22 million in May 2026, followed by 85262 in North Scottsdale at about $1.53 million [1].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Housing Market Insights (Zillow ZHVI, ZORI, inventory and market data)
- [2] Freddie Mac via FRED: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US)
- [3] U.S. Census Bureau via FRED: Resident Population in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ (MSA)
- [4] DataPorium Real Estate: property tax, demographics and neighborhood data
