The silver price in 2026 has followed gold down from a spectacular start to the year, but the metal's supply and demand picture has not changed. Silver futures closed at $63.94 per troy ounce on August 18, 2026, up from a summer low of $56.80 on July 20, according to DataPorium commodity price data [1]. The Silver Institute reported in February that silver had breached $100 per ounce for the first time and projected a sixth consecutive annual market deficit of 67 million ounces for 2026 [2]. With gold futures at $4,420.60 on the same day, the gold-silver ratio stands at about 69, well below the 87 implied by 2025 annual averages [1][3][4]. This note covers industrial demand, the deficit and what the ratio says about relative value.
Where the silver price in 2026 stands
Silver's recent history is a study in volatility. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates the 2025 average price at $38 per ounce, 34% above 2024; the price began 2025 at a low of $29.35, rose for 11 months and reached $53.60 on November 13, 2025 [3]. The rally continued into 2026 and the metal traded above $100 for the first time early in the year, with the Silver Institute noting an 11% gain year to date as of February 9 [2].
The reversal since then has been severe. Futures closed at $58.35 on June 25, $60.64 on July 2, $56.80 on July 20 and $57.67 on August 3 before recovering to $63.94 on August 18 [1]. Even after that fall, silver trades at about 1.7 times its 2025 average, which suggests that the structural story survived the unwinding of speculative positions.
Industrial demand: the solar slowdown and the electronics offset
Silver is unusual among precious metals because more than half of demand is industrial. In the United States, the USGS estimates 2025 end uses at electrical and electronics 25%, other industrial uses and photography 19%, physical investment in bars 18%, photovoltaics 15%, coins and medals 14%, jewelry and silverware 6% and brazing and solder 3% [3]. Global consumption was an estimated 35,700 metric tons in 2025, down slightly from 36,100 tons in 2024, as coin and bar demand rose 7% while industrial use was flat because ethylene oxide capacity grew more slowly and solar manufacturers reduced silver loadings per cell [3].
The Silver Institute expects industrial fabrication of around 650 million ounces in 2026, a 2% decline, as the photovoltaic sector continues to economize on silver [2]. That is a meaningful shift after several years of solar-led growth. The offset comes from electronics, power grid equipment and vehicle electrification, where silver's conductivity is hard to replace. Investors may consider that a 2% dip in industrial demand from record levels is a slowdown, not a collapse, and that thrifting in solar is a normal response to a price that more than doubled.
A sixth straight supply deficit
Supply cannot respond quickly because most silver is mined as a byproduct of lead, zinc, copper and gold. The Silver Institute projects 2026 mine production of 820 million ounces, up only 1%, and total global supply of 1.05 billion ounces, up 1.5%, with recycling surpassing 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012 after a 7% rise [2]. U.S. mines produced approximately 1,100 tons in 2025, worth $1.4 billion [3].
Silver market balance and investment, 2026 projections
| Item | 2026 projection | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mine production | 820 million ounces | +1% |
| Total supply | 1.05 billion ounces | +1.5% |
| Industrial fabrication | About 650 million ounces | -2% |
| Physical investment | 227 million ounces | Firm |
| Jewelry | 178 million ounces | More than -9% |
| Market deficit | 67 million ounces | Sixth consecutive year |
Source: The Silver Institute, February 10, 2026 [2].
Investment demand fills the gap. Physical investment is forecast at 227 million ounces in 2026 and global exchange-traded product holdings stood at an estimated 1.31 billion ounces [2]. High prices are rationing jewelry demand, projected to fall more than 9% to 178 million ounces, exactly as economic theory predicts [2]. The USGS notes that the continued supply deficit was cited as a reason for price increases in 2025 [3].
What the gold-silver ratio says
The gold-silver ratio, the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold, is the most common tool for judging silver's relative value. On USGS annual averages it was 71 in 2021 ($1,801 gold against $25.23 silver), 82 in 2022, 83 in 2023, 84 in 2024 and 87 in 2025 ($3,300 against $38) [3][4]. On August 18, 2026, with gold futures at $4,420.60 and silver at $63.94, the ratio was 69 [1].
- Silver has outperformed: a fall from 87 to 69 means silver gained more than gold from the 2025 average to mid-August 2026, even after both corrected.
- The ratio is back near 2021 levels: 69 is close to the 71 of 2021, so silver is no longer historically cheap against gold, but it is not expensive either.
- Volatility cuts both ways: silver fell further than gold from the early 2026 peaks, and a renewed risk-off move would likely widen the ratio again.
The market-oriented reading is that silver's price is doing its job: rationing marginal demand in solar and jewelry, encouraging recycling to a 14-year high, and rewarding the byproduct producers who cannot easily add supply. Whether the deficit closes depends more on investment flows than on mines.
Silver near $64 still prices a market in its sixth year of deficit, with industrial thrifting offset by investment demand and a gold-silver ratio near 69.
Key takeaways
- Silver futures closed at $63.94 on August 18, 2026, after breaching $100 earlier in the year and bottoming at $56.80 on July 20 [1][2].
- The Silver Institute projects a 2026 deficit of 67 million ounces, the sixth in a row, with mine supply up only 1% at 820 million ounces [2].
- Industrial fabrication is expected to slip 2% to about 650 million ounces as solar makers reduce silver loadings [2][3].
- The gold-silver ratio is about 69 versus 87 on 2025 annual averages, so silver has outperformed gold over the period [1][3][4].
- Recycling above 200 million ounces and weaker jewelry demand show the price is rationing supply and demand as expected [2].
Frequently asked questions
What is the silver price today in August 2026?
Silver futures closed at $63.94 per ounce on August 18, 2026, compared with a 2025 annual average of about $38 and a brief move above $100 early in 2026 [1][2][3].
What is the gold-silver ratio in 2026?
With gold at $4,420.60 and silver at $63.94 on August 18, 2026, the ratio is about 69, down from 87 on 2025 annual averages and 84 in 2024 [1][3][4].
Is there a silver shortage in 2026?
The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive market deficit of 67 million ounces in 2026, with demand exceeding a total supply of 1.05 billion ounces despite recycling above 200 million ounces [2].
How much silver does the solar industry use?
Photovoltaics accounted for about 15% of U.S. silver use in 2025, but manufacturers are reducing silver per cell, and the Silver Institute expects industrial fabrication to fall about 2% in 2026 as a result [2][3].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Commodities: Silver (SI=F) and Gold (GC=F) futures
- [2] The Silver Institute, Global Silver Investment to Remain Strong in 2026 Against the Backdrop of a Sixth Consecutive Annual Market Deficit
- [3] USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Silver
- [4] USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Gold
