Spot bitcoin ETF flows in 2026 turned negative in the first half: the eleven U.S. spot funds recorded a combined net outflow of about $5.4 billion from January through June, with June alone accounting for $4.5 billion of redemptions on 18 outflow days out of 21 [1][2]. Even so, the largest fund, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), held more bitcoin at the end of March (783,744 BTC) than at the end of December (770,792 BTC), which shows that the early-year selling was concentrated in a few weeks and a few holder types rather than spread across the whole base [3]. This note reviews the monthly flow data, what regulatory filings reveal about who owns the funds, and what the pattern says about demand, with data as of July 11, 2026.
Spot bitcoin ETF flows 2026: month by month
The monthly net flows compiled from issuer data show a market that swung between accumulation and redemption with the price [1]:
| Month (2026) | Net flow | Notable day |
|---|---|---|
| January | -$1.6 billion | +$843.6 million on January 14; -$817.9 million on January 29 |
| February | -$206.5 million | +$561.9 million on February 2; -$544.9 million on February 4 |
| March | +$1.3 billion | +$461.8 million on March 4 |
| April | +$2.0 billion | +$663.9 million on April 17 |
| May | -$2.4 billion | +$629.7 million on May 1; -$733.4 million on May 27 |
| June | -$4.5 billion | -$696.3 million on June 25 |
Source: TFTC daily flow tables, which aggregate the issuers' published creations and redemptions [1][2].
Two features stand out. First, the sign of the monthly flow tracked the price direction with a short lag. March and April, the two inflow months, coincided with bitcoin's recovery from $68,233 on March 31 to a second-quarter high of $82,139 on May 10, while the May and June outflows coincided with the slide to $58,559 on June 30 [6]. Second, the daily numbers were large in both directions. January's biggest inflow (+$843.6 million on January 14, the day bitcoin set its high close for the half) was followed two weeks later by the biggest outflow of the quarter [1]. Flow data therefore describes marginal buyers and sellers, not the whole ownership base.
Who holds spot bitcoin ETFs?
Issuer filings and quarterly Form 13F reports give two views of ownership. IBIT's Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2026 reports 783,744 bitcoin held at March 31, up from 770,792 at December 31, even though the fair value of those holdings fell from $67.4 billion to $53.4 billion as the price declined [3]. During the quarter the trust issued 176.9 million shares and redeemed 153.1 million, for a net increase of 23.8 million shares, and its net asset value per share fell from $49.61 to $38.62 [3]. In other words, the first-quarter price decline was almost entirely a valuation effect, not a liquidation of the fund.
Advisers up, hedge funds down
Form 13F data compiled by CF Benchmarks for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows the composition shifting toward long-horizon holders. Investment advisers' IBIT holdings grew from 38 million shares at the end of 2024 to more than 93 million shares a year later, a 145% increase, while hedge fund holdings fell 28% in a single quarter, from 114 million shares to 82 million [4]. A sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi raised its position 46% to 12.7 million shares, Harvard Management Company held 5.4 million shares, and Morgan Stanley's reported position rose from 4.9 million to 13.4 million shares [4]. Hedge funds are the natural sellers when the futures basis narrows, because many of them hold the ETF as one leg of a cash-and-carry trade; advisers hold it as a portfolio allocation. The first-quarter 10-Q data, showing net creations despite a falling price, is consistent with adviser demand absorbing hedge fund exits [3][4].
What the June outflows say about demand
June was the weakest month since the products launched in January 2024. Of the $4.5 billion that left, IBIT accounted for $3.27 billion, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) for $561 million, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) for $438 million, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) for $79 million and the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) for $48 million [2]. Only three trading days in the month were positive, and the largest of those was just $85.8 million on June 12 [2]. Deutsche Bank counted six consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling about $6 billion by June 23 and attributed them to a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, the flows themselves becoming a price driver, and a rotation of speculative capital into artificial intelligence equities [5].
- IBIT's share of June redemptions, about 73%, was roughly in line with its share of assets, so the selling was not fund-specific [2].
- The heaviest redemption day, June 25, came as bitcoin traded below $60,000 for the second time in the month [2][6].
- Higher-fee GBTC continued to lose assets in every month of the half, as it has since launch [1][2].
Demand, then, was pro-cyclical: buyers arrived after prices rose and left after prices fell. That is the behavior of tactical allocators. The base of advised and long-term accounts, which the 13F data shows growing, did not disappear, but it was not large enough to offset tactical selling in a month when the price fell 20% [3][4][6].
The first-half ETF data shows tactical money leaving on price weakness while long-horizon holders kept the underlying bitcoin count roughly stable.
Price impact and what to watch next
IBIT's share price tracks bitcoin closely: its daily return correlation with the spot price this year is about 0.93, and it closed June 30 at $33.29, down 33.0% from $49.65 at the end of 2025, before recovering to $36.23 on July 10 [6]. The DataPorium ETF page and crypto market data carry the daily series for both.
For the second half, three indicators matter more than any single headline number. The first is whether monthly flows turn positive again while the price is still below its January high, which would suggest accumulation rather than momentum chasing. The second is the mix in the next round of 13F filings, due in mid August for the quarter ended June 30: continued adviser growth would confirm that the June redemptions came mainly from hedge funds and trading desks. The third is the spread between ETF flows and the price itself; in the first half a net $5.4 billion of redemptions accompanied a 33% price decline, so the flows explained only part of the move [1][6]. Investors may consider treating flows as a sentiment gauge rather than a forecast.
Key takeaways
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $5.4 billion in the first half of 2026, with June's $4.5 billion the largest monthly redemption since launch [1][2].
- IBIT held 783,744 bitcoin on March 31, 2026, up from 770,792 on December 31, 2025, despite a $14 billion fall in fair value [3].
- 13F filings show advisers' IBIT holdings up 145% over 2025 while hedge fund positions fell 28% in the fourth quarter [4].
- Monthly flows tracked price direction with a short lag, which points to tactical rather than structural demand at the margin [1][6].
Frequently asked questions
How much money left spot bitcoin ETFs in June 2026?
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $4.5 billion in June 2026 across 21 trading days, with 18 outflow days and only 3 inflow days. IBIT alone saw $3.27 billion of redemptions.
Who owns the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)?
Form 13F data for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows investment advisers holding more than 93 million IBIT shares, hedge funds about 82 million, plus sovereign wealth funds, endowments and banks. Advisers grew their holdings 145% over the year while hedge funds cut theirs.
Did spot bitcoin ETFs sell bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026?
Not on a net basis. IBIT's 10-Q shows bitcoin holdings rising from 770,792 to 783,744 between December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026, with net share creations of 23.8 million. The drop in fund assets came from the lower bitcoin price.
Do ETF flows predict the bitcoin price?
The 2026 data suggests flows follow price more than they lead it. Inflows arrived in March and April after the price recovered, and outflows accelerated in May and June after it fell.
Sources & References
- [1] TFTC: Bitcoin ETF Flows, 2026 monthly totals
- [2] TFTC: Bitcoin ETF Flows, June 2026 daily table and net totals
- [3] SEC EDGAR: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026
- [4] CF Benchmarks: Tracking Bitcoin's Flows (13F analysis, February 19, 2026)
- [5] CoinDesk: Bitcoin's June fall below $60,000 highlights new institutional headwinds, Deutsche Bank (June 23, 2026)
- [6] DataPorium Crypto Market Data (BTC-USD and IBIT daily prices)
