The fastest-growing metros by population added residents at nearly seven times the national pace, yet home prices in most of them fell over the past year. Ocala, Florida grew 3.4% between July 2024 and July 2025, the fastest rate of any U.S. metro, and Houston added the most people at 126,720, according to the Census Bureau [2]. As of July 31, 2026, Zillow home values were lower than a year earlier in 16 of these 20 metros, even though all of them remain 26% to 73% above January 2020 levels [1]. Rapid growth pushed prices up during the pandemic boom; since then, new construction has caught up with demand.
The fastest-growing metros by population in 2025
The Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates show that U.S. population growth slowed to 0.5% in the year to July 1, 2025, and metro areas as a group grew 0.6%, down from 1.1% a year earlier [2]. Growth slowed in 310 of the 387 metro areas [2]. The fastest-growing metros by percentage were small and mid-sized markets in Florida, the Carolinas and the Mountain West:
- Ocala, FL: 3.4%
- Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC: 3.2%
- Spartanburg, SC: 2.8%
- Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL: 2.7%
- Punta Gorda, FL: 2.7%
Huntsville, Wilmington, St. George, Fayetteville and Raleigh complete the top 10 [2]. By total people added, the leaders were the large Sun Belt metros: Houston (126,720), Dallas-Fort Worth (123,557), Atlanta (61,953), Phoenix (59,065) and Charlotte (54,122) [2].
What population growth did to home prices since 2020
Over the longer run, population growth and price growth moved together. From January 2020 to July 2026, the median home value gain was +52.3% across the ten fastest-growing metros by percentage and +38.8% across the ten that added the most people [1]. Fayetteville, Arkansas led with a +73.0% increase, followed by Spartanburg (+60.3%) and Wilmington (+60.1%) [1]. Smaller metros that started from lower prices saw the sharpest gains.
| Fastest-growing metro (percent) | Population growth, 2024 to 2025 | Typical home value, July 2026 | 1-year change | Change since Jan 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocala, FL | 3.4% | $269,774 | -2.5% | +55.3% |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC | 3.2% | $339,577 | +0.2% | +52.3% |
| Spartanburg, SC | 2.8% | $276,617 | +1.7% | +60.3% |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 2.7% | $296,589 | -2.7% | +47.4% |
| Punta Gorda, FL | 2.7% | $296,659 | -6.6% | +29.8% |
| Huntsville, AL | 2.6% | $314,974 | +0.9% | +51.6% |
| Wilmington, NC | 2.6% | $444,357 | -0.1% | +60.1% |
| St. George, UT | 2.5% | $525,828 | -1.1% | +52.2% |
| Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR | 2.4% | $367,419 | +3.0% | +73.0% |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | 2.4% | $431,797 | -1.9% | +46.9% |
Why prices are now falling in many fast-growing metros
The last year tells a different story. 6 of the ten fastest-growing metros by percentage had lower home values in July 2026 than a year earlier, led by Punta Gorda (-6.6%), Lakeland (-2.7%) and Ocala (-2.5%) [1]. Among the ten metros that added the most people, all ten saw values fall, with Austin (-5.2%), Dallas (-2.6%) and Orlando (-2.3%) down the most [1]. Nationally, the typical home value rose 1.1% over the same period, to $371,757 [3].
Supply caught up with demand
The explanation is supply. Fast-growing metros are also the places where builders could add homes quickly, and construction that started during the pandemic boom has since added many new homes. In Austin, where values are -26.7% below July 2022, the building boom outpaced even strong population growth [1]. The result is a healthy correction: rapid growth attracted capital, capital built homes, and prices adjusted. Metros that restrict building do not get that adjustment.
| Metro (most people added) | People added, 2024 to 2025 | Typical home value, July 2026 | 1-year change | Change since Jan 2020 | Change since July 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX | 126,720 | $305,329 | -2.0% | +32.6% | -4.2% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 123,557 | $360,454 | -2.6% | +36.7% | -8.5% |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 61,953 | $377,628 | -1.7% | +49.3% | -2.0% |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 59,065 | $442,634 | -1.5% | +48.2% | -11.1% |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 54,122 | $385,162 | -0.5% | +57.1% | +1.2% |
| Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX | 53,796 | $418,046 | -5.2% | +26.3% | -26.7% |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 50,206 | $572,402 | -0.1% | +31.5% | +4.7% |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 43,068 | $727,604 | -1.6% | +40.9% | -4.8% |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 38,402 | $277,236 | -1.9% | +27.2% | -9.8% |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 37,690 | $383,799 | -2.3% | +46.3% | -2.5% |
What this means for buyers and investors
Population growth remains a durable source of housing demand, but it does not guarantee rising prices in every year. For buyers in fast-growing metros, falling values and more listings improve negotiating power. For investors, the lesson is that growth markets reward patience: values in Charlotte (+1.2%) and Washington (+4.7%) are above their July 2022 levels, while Austin and Phoenix (-11.1%) are still well below [1]. The counterpoint is that growth has slowed nationally, and a metro's past growth rate is not a forecast of its future one. Metro-level home values, rents and inventory are available on DataPorium's housing market page [1].
Fast population growth pushed home prices up during the pandemic, but in the metros that let builders respond, supply has since caught up and prices have eased.
Key takeaways
- Ocala, Florida was the fastest-growing U.S. metro in the year to July 1, 2025 at 3.4%, and Houston added the most people at 126,720 [2].
- Home values in the ten fastest-growing metros by percentage rose a median +52.3% from January 2020 to July 2026 [1].
- 16 of the 20 fast-growing metros had lower home values in July 2026 than a year earlier, led by Punta Gorda (-6.6%) and Austin (-5.2%) [1].
- Metro population growth slowed to 0.6% in the year to July 2025, from 1.1% a year earlier [2].
Frequently asked questions
What is the fastest-growing metro area in the US?
Ocala, Florida grew 3.4% between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025, the fastest rate of any metro area, according to Census Bureau estimates released March 26, 2026 [2].
Which metro added the most people?
Houston added 126,720 residents in the year to July 1, 2025, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth with 123,557 [2].
Do home prices rise in fast-growing cities?
Over several years, yes: the 20 fastest-growing metros gained 26% to 73% in value from January 2020 to July 2026. Over the past year, however, most of them saw values fall as new construction added supply [1].
Are home prices falling in Florida and Texas?
In most large Florida and Texas metros, yes. As of July 2026, values were down 5.2% in Austin, 2.6% in Dallas and 6.6% in Punta Gorda from a year earlier [1].
