U.S. home values were close to flat at mid-2026. The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) put the typical U.S. home at $368,720 in May 2026, up 0.6% from April and only 0.8% higher than a year earlier [1]. Beneath the national average, 22 of the 50 largest metro areas had lower values than a year ago, led by Austin at -5.7%, while Milwaukee and Hartford posted the strongest gains at 5.1% [1]. As of June 25, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.49%, down from 6.77% a year earlier [3].
What U.S. home values look like in mid-2026
The national picture is one of stability rather than growth. Zillow's May report shows the typical home value at $368,720, a monthly gain of 0.6% during the spring selling season and an annual gain of 0.8% [1]. Inventory reached 1.36 million homes for sale, 1.0% more than a year earlier and 4.6% more than in April [1]. Sales, however, were 2.9% lower than in May 2025 at 341,929 homes, and new listings fell 4.1% from a year earlier to 422,956 [1].
Two numbers explain why prices are neither rising nor falling much. First, the share of listings with a price cut stood at 23.9% in May, a sign that sellers are meeting buyers part of the way [1]. Second, the typical monthly mortgage payment on a Zillow typical home was $1,861, 3.1% lower than a year ago, because mortgage rates were below their mid-2025 level [1]. The Freddie Mac survey shows the 30-year rate at 6.49% in the week of June 25, 2026, after a low of 5.98% on February 26 and a rise through the spring [3].
Where home prices are falling
The declines are concentrated in the Sun Belt and in a few West Coast technology markets. The table lists the largest annual declines in Zillow's May 2026 metro data [1].
| Metro area | Typical home value | Year-over-year change | Inventory, year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | $424,529 | -5.7% | -7.3% |
| Las Vegas, NV | $427,779 | -3.2% | +1.3% |
| Dallas, TX | $364,214 | -3.0% | -5.8% |
| Tampa, FL | $358,990 | -2.8% | -10.0% |
| Denver, CO | $569,302 | -2.7% | -7.2% |
| Orlando, FL | $385,852 | -2.7% | -4.2% |
| Houston, TX | $306,369 | -2.2% | +4.1% |
| Miami, FL | $474,863 | -2.1% | -14.2% |
| Raleigh, NC | $435,842 | -2.1% | +14.1% |
| Atlanta, GA | $381,077 | -2.0% | +0.2% |
| Seattle, WA | $742,920 | -1.9% | +14.9% |
Why the Sun Belt leads the declines
The markets with falling values are, for the most part, the markets that rose fastest between 2020 and 2022 and that added the most new housing since then. Texas metros show the pattern clearly: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin all recorded lower values than a year earlier, even though inventory in Dallas and Austin was below year-ago levels [1]. Florida's large metros (Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville) were also down, in each case with inventory well below a year ago, which suggests that sellers withdrew listings rather than accept lower prices [1]. In these markets the correction is a slow repricing after a period of very fast gains, not a collapse in demand.
Where prices are still rising
The strongest annual gains were in the Northeast and Midwest, where new construction has been limited for years and where the pandemic-era run-up was smaller. According to the same Zillow data [1], values rose by 3% or more in these metros:
- Milwaukee, WI: +5.1% to $388,587
- Hartford, CT: +5.1% to $399,801
- Buffalo, NY: +4.6% to $287,654
- Chicago, IL: +4.4% to $353,237
- New York, NY: +4.0% to $726,935
- Cleveland, OH: +4.0% to $251,149
- Kansas City, MO: +3.6% to $328,484
- Providence, RI: +3.2% to $523,253
- St. Louis, MO and New Orleans, LA: +3.0%
These are also the markets where the price of entry is lowest relative to local incomes, so demand has held up better as mortgage rates moved above 6%. In several of them, sales fell sharply (New York -16.7%, Providence -17.0%, Detroit -14.8%) while prices still rose, which is the signature of thin supply rather than strong demand [1].
Price tiers and property types
The national index hides wide differences by segment. DataPorium's Zillow-based series shows the bottom third of homes valued at about $200,138 in May 2026 and the top third at about $708,002, with single-family homes at $370,200 and condos at $346,724 [2]. A typical three-bedroom home was valued at $349,018 and a four-bedroom home at $508,598 [2]. Readers can compare these segments for any state, metro, city or ZIP code on DataPorium's housing market page, which carries the same Zillow-based home value, rent, inventory and days-to-pending series used here.
At mid-2026 the U.S. housing market is flat on average, falling in the metros that boomed after 2020, and still rising where supply is tightest.
What flat national prices mean for buyers and investors
A market where prices grow 0.8% a year while wages grow faster is a market that becomes slowly more affordable without a painful price crash. That is a healthier outcome than the alternatives, and it is largely the result of private builders adding supply in the South and West. The counterpoint is that flat prices with rates near 6.5% still leave the monthly payment far above 2021 levels, so the recovery in sales volume remains slow [1][3].
For investors, the dispersion matters more than the average. Metro-level annual changes ranged from -5.7% to +5.1% in the same month, a spread of nearly 11 percentage points [1]. Investors may consider that the markets with falling prices and rising inventory (Seattle, Raleigh, Houston) offer more negotiating room, while the markets with rising prices and shrinking sales (New York, Providence) may be closer to a demand ceiling. National averages are a poor guide to either.
Key takeaways
- The typical U.S. home was worth $368,720 in May 2026, up 0.8% from a year earlier, according to Zillow [1].
- 22 of the 50 largest metros had lower values than a year ago; Austin (-5.7%), Las Vegas (-3.2%) and Dallas (-3.0%) led the declines [1].
- Milwaukee, Hartford, Buffalo, Chicago and New York posted gains of 4% or more, driven by tight supply [1].
- Inventory was 1.36 million homes, up 1.0% from a year ago, and 23.9% of listings carried a price cut [1].
- The 30-year mortgage rate was 6.49% as of June 25, 2026, below the 6.77% of a year earlier [3].
Frequently asked questions
Are U.S. home prices falling in 2026?
Nationally, no. The Zillow Home Value Index was 0.8% higher in May 2026 than a year earlier, but 22 of the 50 largest metros, mostly in Texas, Florida and the Mountain West, recorded lower values than a year ago [1].
Which city has the biggest home price decline in 2026?
Among the 50 largest metros, Austin, Texas had the largest annual decline in May 2026 at -5.7%, followed by Las Vegas at -3.2% and Dallas at -3.0% [1].
What is the typical home value in the United States in 2026?
Zillow's typical home value was $368,720 in May 2026 [1]. DataPorium's Zillow-based data shows the bottom tier near $200,000 and the top tier near $708,000 in the same month [2].
Where are home values rising the most in 2026?
The Northeast and Midwest lead: Milwaukee and Hartford were up 5.1% year over year in May 2026, Buffalo 4.6%, Chicago 4.4%, and New York and Cleveland 4.0% [1].
