Who pays for tariffs? The 2026 data give a clear answer: the legal payer is the U.S. importer, and the economic cost is shared among importers, consumers and foreign exporters depending on the product. Through June of fiscal 2026 U.S. Customs collected $244.3 billion in gross duties, paid back $81.3 billion in refunds after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under emergency powers in February, and kept $163.0 billion net, up from $108.0 billion a year earlier [2]. The goods and services trade deficit was $77.6 billion in May 2026 and is down 40.6% year to date, while core goods prices in the consumer price index rose only 0.8% over the twelve months to June [3][4]. This note treats tariffs as economics, not politics: what they cost, who bears the cost, and what the trade balance and price data show so far.
Tariffs are a tax paid at the border by U.S. importers
A tariff is a federal excise tax collected when goods clear customs, and the check is written by the importing business, not by the foreign seller. The Tax Foundation's tariff tracker estimates that the U.S. collected $264 billion in tariff revenue in 2025, up from $79 billion in 2024, with the effective tariff rate at 7.7% in 2025, the highest since 1947 [1]. The tracker puts the average tax increase at roughly $820 per household in 2026 and estimates that new tariffs cover about 54% of U.S. goods imports this year [1].
The Treasury's own receipts confirm the scale. Customs duties in the Monthly Treasury Statement ran $163.0 billion net for the first nine months of fiscal 2026, and the full year budget estimate is $406.1 billion [2]. That would make tariffs the fourth largest federal revenue source after individual income taxes, payroll taxes and corporate income taxes.
The refund wave after the February court ruling
On February 20, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were not authorized, and refunds with interest were required [1]. The effect is visible month by month: in June 2026 customs collected $23.6 billion in gross duties but paid $49.2 billion in refunds, so net customs receipts were negative $25.6 billion for the month, and May was roughly flat [2]. Tariffs imposed under other statutes, including those on steel, aluminum and autos, remain in place, which is why gross collections continue [1].
What the trade balance data show in 2026
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a goods and services deficit of $77.6 billion in May 2026, up from a revised $54.6 billion in April, with exports of $317.7 billion and imports of $395.3 billion [3]. The goods deficit was $106.5 billion and the services surplus $28.9 billion [3]. Year to date the deficit is down $203.9 billion, or 40.6%, from the same period of 2025; exports rose $164.7 billion (11.7%) while imports fell $39.2 billion (2.1%) [3].
| Measure (May 2026) | Value |
|---|---|
| Goods and services deficit | $77.6 billion |
| Exports | $317.7 billion |
| Imports | $395.3 billion |
| Goods deficit | $106.5 billion |
| Services surplus | $28.9 billion |
| Year to date deficit change vs 2025 | down $203.9 billion (40.6%) |
Source: BEA, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2026 [3].
The composition of bilateral deficits has shifted. In May the largest goods deficits were with Vietnam ($20.6 billion), Mexico ($20.1 billion) and Taiwan ($19.4 billion), while the deficit with China was $14.5 billion [3]. Trade has been rerouted rather than eliminated. The narrower overall deficit reflects strong export growth and a 2025 surge in front loaded imports that has since unwound, not a lasting reduction in demand for imported goods.
Do tariffs raise consumer prices? What the CPI shows
The price effect has been smaller than many expected. In June 2026 the consumer price index rose 3.5% over twelve months, but that increase was dominated by energy, which rose 15.7%, with gasoline up 26.7% [4]. Core goods, the category most exposed to tariffs, rose 0.8% over the year and fell 0.1% in the month [4]. Within goods, apparel rose 3.9%, household furnishings 2.5%, new vehicles 0.5%, and used cars and trucks fell 1.8% [4]. The all items index tracked in DataPorium's economic metrics stood at 332.6 in June 2026 versus 321.5 a year earlier, a 3.4% rise on a seasonally adjusted basis [5].
Why the incidence is split
- Foreign exporters absorb part of a tariff by cutting their prices to keep U.S. market share, which is consistent with the modest rise in core goods prices [4].
- Importers and retailers absorb part in thinner margins, which shows up in corporate earnings rather than the CPI.
- Consumers pay the remainder, most visibly in categories with few substitutes such as apparel [4].
The economic case: revenue versus growth
From a market oriented perspective the trade off is direct. Tariffs raise real revenue and can be a negotiating tool, but they are a tax on inputs and on consumption. The Tax Foundation estimates the long run effect of the 2025 to 2026 tariffs at a 0.4% reduction in GDP and about 338,000 fewer full time equivalent jobs, before accounting for retaliation [1]. A tariff on steel raises costs for every manufacturer that uses steel; the beneficiary is concentrated and the cost is spread thinly across many firms and households.
The fair counterpoint is that some of the revenue replaces other taxes, that reshoring of some production has real value, and that the narrower trade deficit lowers reliance on foreign borrowing. Those benefits are real but hard to measure. What the data through June show is a large new revenue stream, a trade deficit that has narrowed mostly through export growth, and goods inflation that remains low, with the main price pressure in 2026 coming from energy rather than tariffs. Investors may consider that the biggest tariff risk in the second half of 2026 is legal and administrative uncertainty over refunds and future authority, not an inflation shock.
Importers paid $244 billion in gross duties through June 2026 and received $81 billion back after the February court ruling, while core goods prices rose only 0.8%, showing that the tariff burden fell on margins and revenue more than on consumer prices.
Key takeaways
- Customs duties totaled $163.0 billion net through June of fiscal 2026, up from $108.0 billion a year earlier, after $81.3 billion of refunds [2].
- The Supreme Court's February 20, 2026 ruling invalidated emergency powers tariffs and triggered refunds that turned June customs receipts negative by $25.6 billion [1][2].
- The trade deficit was $77.6 billion in May 2026 and is down 40.6% year to date, driven by 11.7% export growth and a 2.1% drop in imports [3].
- Core goods prices rose 0.8% in the year to June 2026 while energy rose 15.7%; the tariff pass through to consumers has been limited so far [4].
- The Tax Foundation estimates a long run GDP cost of 0.4% and about $820 per household in 2026 [1].
Frequently asked questions
Who actually pays tariffs, the exporter or the importer?
The U.S. importer pays the duty to Customs when goods enter the country; the economic cost is then split among foreign exporters who cut prices, importers who accept lower margins, and consumers who pay higher prices, with the mix depending on the product [1][4].
How much tariff revenue has the U.S. collected in 2026?
Through June of fiscal 2026 customs duties were $244.3 billion gross and $163.0 billion net of $81.3 billion in refunds, and the Treasury's full year estimate is $406.1 billion [2].
Have tariffs caused inflation in 2026?
Not much so far in goods: core goods prices rose 0.8% in the twelve months to June 2026, while the 3.5% headline CPI increase was driven by a 15.7% rise in energy prices [4].
Has the U.S. trade deficit fallen in 2026?
Yes. The goods and services deficit was $77.6 billion in May 2026 and was down $203.9 billion, or 40.6%, year to date compared with 2025, mainly because exports rose 11.7% [3].
Sources & References
- [1] Tax Foundation: Tariff Tracker, Rates, Revenue and Impact
- [2] U.S. Treasury: Monthly Treasury Statement, June 2026
- [3] Bureau of Economic Analysis: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2026
- [4] Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, June 2026
- [5] DataPorium Economic Indicators and Macro Data
