The Chinese yuan has risen about 4% against the US dollar in 2026. USD/CNY closed at 6.7123 on September 24, 2026, down from 6.9926 at the end of 2025, according to DataPorium's daily data [1]. The Federal Reserve's H.10 series shows the same trend, with the yuan reaching its strongest level of the year, 6.6975 per dollar, on September 18 [2]. The main support has come from trade: China's exports rose 14.6% and imports 22% in yuan terms in the first eight months of 2026, leaving a goods surplus of about 5.56 trillion yuan [4].
How far the Chinese yuan has moved in 2026
The yuan's gain has been steady rather than sudden. On the Fed's noon buying rates in New York, USD/CNY stood at 6.9931 on December 31, 2025, 6.8980 on March 31, 6.7851 on June 30 and 6.7197 on August 31, 2026 [2]. The weakest yuan level of the year was 6.9965 on January 7 [2]. Measured from 7.2994 on January 2, 2025, the yuan has appreciated about 9.0% against the dollar in less than two years [2].
The move is notable because interest rates point the other way. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, 2026, in a unanimous 12 to 0 vote [5]. China's one year loan prime rate, the benchmark the BIS uses for China, has stayed at 3.00% [6]. A currency whose interest rates are below US rates would normally tend to weaken, so the yuan's strength points to other forces. Since the Fed's decision the yuan has eased slightly, from 6.6975 on September 18 to 6.7123 on September 24, but it remains about 4.2% stronger than at the start of the year [1][2].
China's trade surplus in 2026: exports and imports both rising
China's customs data, released on September 8, show strong trade growth in both directions [4]:
- Total goods trade in January to August 2026 was 34.78 trillion yuan (about $5.13 trillion), up 17.6% from a year earlier [4].
- Exports rose 14.6% to 20.17 trillion yuan, and imports rose 22% to 14.61 trillion yuan [4].
- In August alone, trade reached 4.65 trillion yuan, up 19.8%, with exports up 18.6% and imports up 21.7% [4].
- Import growth has outpaced export growth for six consecutive months, and both have grown at double digit rates for four straight months [4].
Why trade flows support the yuan
A goods surplus of roughly 5.56 trillion yuan in eight months means Chinese exporters earn far more foreign currency than importers spend [4]. When exporters convert a larger share of those earnings into yuan, demand for the currency rises. Faster import growth has not reversed this, because imports start from a smaller base: even at 22% growth, imports of 14.61 trillion yuan remain well below exports of 20.17 trillion yuan [4]. A stronger yuan also raises the dollar value of China's trade, which is one reason dollar denominated totals such as the $5.13 trillion figure can grow faster than yuan totals.
US trade with China in 2026: a smaller deficit
The bilateral picture with the United States looks different from China's global trade. According to the US Census Bureau, US goods imports from China were $156.4 billion in January to July 2026, down 19.4% from $194.0 billion in the same months of 2025, while US exports to China were almost unchanged at $65.2 billion [3]. The US goods deficit with China narrowed to $91.2 billion from $128.8 billion, a decline of 29.2% [3].
The trend has turned in recent months. US imports from China rose from $19.8 billion in April to $27.1 billion in July 2026, the highest monthly figure of the year and 2.6% above July 2025 [3]. For full year 2025, US imports from China were $308.7 billion, about 30% below the $440.3 billion recorded in 2024 [3]. In other words, China's export growth in 2026 has come mainly from other markets, while trade with the United States is recovering from a much lower base.
| US goods trade with China | Jan to Jul 2025 | Jan to Jul 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| US exports to China | $65.1 billion | $65.2 billion | 0.0% |
| US imports from China | $194.0 billion | $156.4 billion | minus 19.4% |
| US goods balance | minus $128.8 billion | minus $91.2 billion | deficit 29.2% smaller |
What a stronger yuan means for markets
For China, a firmer currency raises the purchasing power of households and firms for imported goods and energy, which fits the faster import growth in 2026 [4]. It also makes exports somewhat more expensive abroad, although export growth of 14.6% so far suggests demand has remained strong [4]. For US companies, a stronger yuan modestly raises the dollar price of goods imported from China and increases the dollar value of sales made in China.
From a market oriented view, a currency that rises with a trade surplus is the adjustment mechanism working as it should, and more balanced trade through higher Chinese imports is a healthier outcome than one reached through trade barriers. The counterpoint is that a wider US and China interest rate gap after the Fed's September hike could slow or reverse the yuan's gains if capital flows toward higher dollar yields [5][6]. Investors may consider following USD/CNY together with monthly trade releases on DataPorium's forex page [1].
The Chinese yuan rose about 4% against the dollar in 2026 despite lower interest rates than the US, supported by a large and growing trade surplus.
Key takeaways
- USD/CNY fell from 6.9926 at the end of 2025 to 6.7123 on September 24, 2026, a yuan gain of about 4.2% [1].
- China's exports rose 14.6% and imports 22% in yuan terms in January to August 2026 [4].
- The US goods deficit with China narrowed 29.2% to $91.2 billion in January to July 2026 [3].
- The Fed's hike to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16 widened the rate gap with China's 3.00% loan prime rate [5][6].
Frequently asked questions
What is the yuan to dollar exchange rate in September 2026?
USD/CNY closed at 6.7123 on September 24, 2026, meaning one dollar bought about 6.71 yuan, after touching 6.6975 on September 18, the strongest yuan level of the year [1][2].
Why is the Chinese yuan getting stronger in 2026?
The main support is trade: China ran a goods surplus of about 5.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2026, and exporters' conversion of foreign earnings adds demand for the yuan [4].
How big is China's trade surplus in 2026?
In January to August 2026 China exported 20.17 trillion yuan of goods and imported 14.61 trillion yuan, a surplus of about 5.56 trillion yuan [4].
What is the US trade deficit with China in 2026?
The US goods deficit with China was $91.2 billion in January to July 2026, down from $128.8 billion in the same period of 2025, according to the Census Bureau [3].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Forex: daily USD/CNY exchange rate
- [2] FRED: Chinese Yuan Renminbi to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXCHUS), Federal Reserve H.10, through September 18, 2026
- [3] U.S. Census Bureau: Trade in Goods with China
- [4] Xinhua: China's foreign trade maintains rapid growth in first eight months (General Administration of Customs data, September 8, 2026)
- [5] Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- [6] BIS: Central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), China and United States, September 18 to 24, 2026
