Gold vs the US dollar in 2026 has followed the textbook inverse relationship more closely than in many past years, but the dollar explains only part of gold's large swings. From December 31, 2025 to September 11, 2026, daily changes in COMEX gold futures (GC=F) and the Federal Reserve's broad dollar index had a correlation of minus 0.55, and the two moved in opposite directions on 126 of 173 trading days, or 73% [1][2]. Yet gold rose 22.5% and then fell 24.6% while the dollar moved less than 4% in either direction [1][2]. As of September 15, 2026, gold settled at $4,332.80 an ounce, almost exactly where it began the year [1].
Gold vs the US dollar in 2026: the three phases
The year divides into three clear phases, and in each one gold and the dollar moved in opposite directions [1][2]:
- December 31 to January 29: the broad dollar index fell 1.9% to its 2026 low of 117.44, and gold rose 22.5% to its peak of $5,318.40 [1][2].
- January 29 to June 24: the dollar index rose 3.4% to its 2026 high of 121.41, and gold fell 24.6% to $4,008.80; the low for the year, $3,992.10, came on July 16 [1][2].
- June 24 to September 11: the dollar index fell 2.6% to 118.21, and gold rose 10.0% to $4,408.90 [1][2].
The turning points line up closely. Gold's peak and the dollar's low fell on the same day, January 29, and the dollar's high on June 24 came within weeks of gold's July trough [1][2].
Testing the inverse relationship with data
DataPorium compared daily closing prices for gold futures with the Fed's nominal broad dollar index, which weights the dollar against the currencies of major US trading partners [1][2]. The results for December 31, 2025 to September 11, 2026:
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Correlation of daily returns, full period | minus 0.55 |
| Correlation, first quarter 2026 | minus 0.43 |
| Correlation, second quarter 2026 | minus 0.78 |
| Correlation, July 1 to September 11 | minus 0.59 |
| Correlation of weekly returns (Fridays) | minus 0.46 |
| Days moving in opposite directions | 126 of 173 (73%) |
| Share of gold's daily variance linked to the dollar (R squared) | 0.30 |
| Annualized volatility: gold vs dollar index | 31.1% vs 4.5% |
For comparison, the daily correlation over the last four months of 2025 was minus 0.35, weaker than in any quarter of 2026 [1][2]. On a monthly basis, gold and the dollar moved in opposite directions in seven of the eight months from January to August 2026; the exception was April, when gold slipped 0.4% while the dollar index fell 2.0% [1][2].
What the numbers mean
A correlation of minus 0.55 is strong for two financial series, and it confirms that a weaker dollar has tended to coincide with a higher gold price this year. But an R squared of 0.30 means about 70% of gold's daily variation came from other forces. The size mismatch tells the same story. Gold is roughly seven times as volatile as the broad dollar index, so a 1% move in the dollar has lined up with an average move of about 3.8% in gold in the opposite direction, and the dollar alone cannot account for a 25% decline from peak to trough [1][2].
What else is driving gold in 2026
The other forces are mostly about interest rates and investor demand. Gold pays no income, so its appeal falls when real interest rates rise and when central banks lean toward tightening. At its July 29 meeting the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three members dissented in favor of a quarter point increase, noting that inflation remained elevated partly because of supply shocks [3]. A market that expects the next Fed move to be up is a harder environment for a non yielding asset, and it also supports the dollar, which helps explain why both forces pushed gold lower in the spring.
Other central banks matter too. On September 10 the ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50% effective September 16, and its staff projected headline euro area inflation of 3.0% for 2026 [4]. Higher rates abroad narrow the gap with US rates, which tends to weigh on the dollar. Since June the dollar index has declined and gold has recovered, consistent with that channel [1][2][4].
From a sound money perspective, gold's 2026 path is a reminder that it is a hedge against currency debasement and loose policy, not a one way bet. When central banks show resolve against inflation, as the Fed's July dissents and the ECB's September hike suggest, gold can fall sharply even without a strong dollar. The counterpoint is that gold's recovery since July shows that demand remains firm whenever the dollar softens. Investors may consider watching the broad dollar index and real yields together; DataPorium's commodities page tracks gold futures daily alongside other commodities.
In 2026 gold and the dollar moved in opposite directions on 73% of trading days, but the dollar explained only about 30% of gold's daily moves, so interest rates and investor demand did most of the work.
Key takeaways
- The daily correlation between gold futures and the broad dollar index was minus 0.55 from December 31, 2025 to September 11, 2026 [1][2].
- Gold peaked at $5,318.40 on January 29, the same day the dollar index hit its 2026 low of 117.44 [1][2].
- Gold fell 24.6% from January 29 to June 24 while the dollar rose only 3.4%, so other drivers dominated [1][2].
- As of September 15, 2026, gold was $4,332.80, about 0.2% below its end of 2025 level [1].
Frequently asked questions
Does a weaker dollar mean higher gold prices?
Usually, but not always: in 2026 gold moved opposite the broad dollar index on 73% of trading days, with a daily correlation of minus 0.55, but the dollar explained only about 30% of gold's daily variation [1][2].
Why did gold fall so much in 2026?
Gold fell 24.6% from its January 29 peak to June 24 as the dollar strengthened and the Federal Reserve held rates with three members favoring a hike, which raised the cost of holding a metal that pays no income [1][2][3].
What is the price of gold in September 2026?
COMEX gold futures settled at $4,332.80 an ounce on September 15, 2026, about 8.5% above the July 16 low of $3,992.10 [1].
What is the correlation between gold and the dollar?
From December 31, 2025 to September 11, 2026, the correlation of daily returns was minus 0.55, ranging from minus 0.43 in the first quarter to minus 0.78 in the second quarter [1][2].
