Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose about 42% in the third quarter of 2026, from $72.92 a barrel on June 30 to $103.53 on September 30, DataPorium data show [1]. US benchmark WTI rose about 30%, from $69.50 to $90.42 [1]. Fighting between the United States and Iran resumed in July and again in September, attacks hit tankers and a key Saudi pipeline, and the Strait of Hormuz stayed only partly open [4][6][7]. On October 6, 2026, the US Energy Information Administration forecast Brent at $105 a barrel on average in the fourth quarter [2].
How much did oil prices rise in Q3 2026?
The quarter started with oil back near its prewar level and ended near the highs of the spring. The table shows front-month futures closes at the main turning points, as tracked by DataPorium [1].
| Date | Brent ($/barrel) | WTI ($/barrel) | Brent minus WTI | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 72.92 | 69.50 | 3.42 | End of Q2, after peace talks progressed |
| July 23, 2026 | 100.69 | 92.19 | 8.50 | About two weeks of renewed fighting |
| August 5, 2026 | 79.45 | 75.22 | 4.23 | Pause in strikes, talk of a Hormuz deal |
| September 15, 2026 | 108.75 | 105.83 | 2.92 | Quarter's highest close, Saudi pipeline shut |
| September 30, 2026 | 103.53 | 90.42 | 13.11 | End of Q3 |
| October 9, 2026 | 104.72 | 91.85 | 12.87 | Latest close before publication |
Source: DataPorium Commodities, daily closes of Brent and WTI front-month futures [1]. Front-month prices can jump when the contract month rolls over; the events column summarizes the news reports cited below.
For the year, Brent was up 70.1% through September 30, from $60.85 on December 31, 2025 [1]. Its lowest close of the third quarter was $71.57 on July 1, and its highest was $108.75 on September 15 [1]. WTI's lowest close was $68.55 on July 6 and its highest $105.83 on September 15 [1].
What drove oil prices in July, August and September?
July: from prewar prices to $100
The war began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran [3][5]. Brent peaked above $126 a barrel during trading on April 30, then fell as talks progressed [3]. On July 2, Brent dipped below $71, its lowest since February 27, the day before the war began, after Qatar, a mediator, reported "positive progress" in indirect talks between Washington and Tehran [3].
That calm did not last. After nearly two weeks of escalating conflict in July, Brent closed at $100.69 on July 23 [1][4]. On July 27, Brent fell 8.7% to $88.36 after Iran signaled it would stop attacks as long as US strikes stayed paused [4].
August: a pause and a deal framework
On August 3, Brent fell 4.7% to $83.77 after President Donald Trump said he had called off a planned strike at the request of Iran and other countries in the region, describing a deal framework that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz [5]. Iran's foreign ministry said it was holding talks only with Oman about shipping routes through the strait [5]. Brent's lowest close of August was $79.45 on August 5 [1].
September: renewed attacks and a pipeline outage
Fighting escalated again in early September, and prices rose more than 16% in the first half of the month, CNBC reported [6]. On September 11, a drone attack launched from Iraq damaged a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which carries crude from the kingdom's eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu and had let Saudi exports bypass Hormuz [6][7]. Riyadh shut the line, and Brent closed at $108.75 on September 15 [1][6].
Prices eased in the second half of the month as Saudi Arabia redirected exports through Hormuz using a shipping lane along Oman's coast protected by the US military [7]. Saudi crude exports reached 6 million barrels a day in September, the highest since the war began, according to Kpler data cited by CNBC, and Hormuz oil flows reached a seven-day average of 13.2 million barrels a day on September 23, compared with about 17 million before the war [7].
Why is Brent so far above WTI?
The gap between Brent and WTI was $3.42 a barrel at the end of June and $13.11 at the end of September [1]. Brent is priced off crude loaded in the North Sea and reflects the seaborne market that competes for barrels that normally come from the Persian Gulf. WTI is priced at Cushing, Oklahoma, and reflects US crude, which is produced at home and is not exposed to Hormuz. When Gulf supply is disrupted, buyers in Europe and Asia bid up seaborne crude, and the spread widens.
Diesel adds to the pressure. The EIA said that "extreme tightness in diesel markets" raises refiners' demand for crude, and that East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September [2].
What does the EIA expect for oil prices?
In its October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA assumed that oil flows from the Middle East stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026, while convoys through Hormuz, bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers gradually raise exports [2]. It raised its Brent forecast to an average of $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter, $14 higher than a month earlier, and expects Brent to average $84 in 2027 [2]. The forecast was finalized on October 1 and includes a US Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange of 40 million barrels announced on September 29 [2].
After that, on October 2, G7 governments agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, CNBC reported [8]. Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said on October 5 that nearly 3 billion barrels of supply had been lost since the war began, about 1 billion barrels had been drawn from stocks, and rebuilding inventories could take up to two years [8].
Brent crude rose from $72.92 to $103.53 in the third quarter of 2026, a gain of about 42%, as renewed US-Iran fighting and a Saudi pipeline outage kept Gulf oil supply tight.
What higher oil prices mean for consumers and inflation
Oil feeds directly into fuel costs. In August 2026, the consumer price index for gasoline was 27.4% higher than a year earlier, and the energy index was up 16.3%, while overall inflation was 3.4% [9]. The EIA reported that US retail gasoline averaged $4.35 a gallon in September 2026 and diesel $6.29 [2]. It expects gasoline to average just under $3.60 a gallon in 2027 as crude prices fall [2].
For oil producers, the quarter brought much higher prices for each barrel sold. US producers sell at prices linked to WTI, which rose less than Brent [1]. Companies' third-quarter results, due in late October, will show how much of the price rise reached their earnings.
Frequently asked questions
What is the price of Brent crude in October 2026?
Brent front-month futures closed at $104.72 a barrel on October 9, 2026, and WTI at $91.85, DataPorium data show [1]. Brent started 2026 near $61.
Why are oil prices so high in 2026?
The war that began on February 28, 2026 disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply [5][8]. Attacks on tankers and on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in September added to the shortage [6].
What is the EIA oil price forecast?
The EIA's October 6, 2026 outlook expects Brent to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $84 in 2027 [2]. Its next outlook is scheduled for November 10, 2026.
Why is WTI cheaper than Brent?
WTI reflects US crude produced at home, while Brent reflects seaborne crude that competes for Persian Gulf barrels. The gap reached $13.11 a barrel on September 30, 2026 [1].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Commodities (Brent and WTI crude oil futures, daily closes)
- [2] U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released October 6, 2026)
- [3] Al Jazeera, Oil prices fall to levels not seen since start of US-Israel war on Iran (July 2, 2026)
- [4] CNBC, Oil prices slide, Brent crude below $90 as pause to U.S.-Iran hostilities appears to hold (July 27, 2026)
- [5] CNBC, Oil prices fall after Trump says he called off planned strike on Iran (August 3, 2026)
- [6] CNBC, Oil prices fall after U.S. says damaged Saudi pipeline will restart operations in days (September 16, 2026)
- [7] CNBC, Saudi Arabia crude oil exports hit highest level since Iran war began despite pipeline outage (September 25, 2026)
- [8] CNBC, Saudi Aramco chief says replenishing global oil stockpiles could take two years (October 5, 2026)
- [9] BLS, Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (released September 11, 2026)
