Heating costs this winter will depend mostly on which fuel a home uses. The US Energy Information Administration expects households that heat with heating oil, about 3% of homes and mostly in the Northeast, to spend 21% more than last winter, and homes heated with electricity to see bills about 4% higher, while bills for homes heated with natural gas, the most common fuel, stay close to last winter's level [1][2]. Natural gas futures traded at $3.22 per million British thermal units on October 9, 2026, far below the $7.46 peak of January 28, DataPorium data show [3].
How much will it cost to heat a home this winter?
The EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook, published on October 6, 2026, forecasts household spending on the four most common heating fuels for October through March, compared with last winter [1].
| Main heating fuel | Share of US homes | Forecast change in winter spending | Main reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | 46% (2024) | Close to last winter; South -5%, Midwest about +2% | Similar prices, milder weather in most regions |
| Electricity | More than 40% | About +4% | Higher retail electricity prices |
| Propane | Small share, mostly Midwest and Northeast | -3% nationally; Northeast -15% | Lower propane prices |
| Heating oil | About 3% | +21% | Higher crude oil and distillate prices |
Source: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 and October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook [1][2]. Forecasts assume temperatures close to the 30-year trend; the EIA updates them each month.
The EIA described its expectations simply: households using natural gas and propane, about half of all US homes, should spend less or about the same, while homes using electricity or heating oil should spend more [1][2]. In the Midwest, where many homes heat with gas, it expects the average winter gas bill to be about $610, 2% more than last winter, because of higher prices in that region [1].
Why is heating oil so expensive this winter?
Heating oil is a distillate fuel, chemically close to diesel, and distillates are in short supply worldwide. The EIA said global distillate production has dropped because of reduced refining activity, raising international prices, making imports to the United States more costly and increasing demand for US exports, so US distillate stocks are low heading into winter [1]. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year average in September [2].
The cause traces back to crude oil and the war with Iran. DataPorium data show Brent crude futures rose from $72.92 a barrel on June 30 to $103.53 on September 30, 2026 [3]. Retail diesel set a weekly record of $6.529 a gallon on September 21, 2026, and was $6.199 on October 5, in EIA data [4][5]. The EIA said heating oil prices are more than 30% higher than last winter, but it expects spending to rise by a smaller 21% because it assumes a milder winter in the Northeast [2].
Why are natural gas bills holding steady?
Natural gas is a different market from oil. US production is high and storage is full: working gas in storage was about 5% above the previous five-year average heading into winter, the EIA said, and inventories were at normal or above-normal levels in all regions [1]. Robust production and lower gas use by power plants than the previous summer kept wholesale price increases moderate [1].
| Date | Natural gas futures ($ per MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | 3.686 |
| January 28, 2026 (2026 high) | 7.460 |
| March 31, 2026 | 2.884 |
| April 24, 2026 (2026 low) | 2.523 |
| June 30, 2026 | 3.275 |
| September 30, 2026 | 3.026 |
| October 9, 2026 | 3.220 |
Source: DataPorium Commodities, daily closes of front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures [3].
The EIA cited winter storm Fern, earlier in 2026, as one reason wholesale electricity prices are higher this year [2]. The EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price at an average of $3.16 per MMBtu in 2027, 9% lower than in 2026, reflecting above-average inventories and production growth that offsets rising liquefied natural gas exports [2]. It expects gas prices to rise somewhat into winter as exports grow and storage withdrawals begin [1].
Retail gas bills move more slowly than wholesale prices because many state utility commissions set rates in advance, the EIA noted [1].
Why are electricity bills rising?
For the many homes that heat with electricity, especially in the South, the EIA expects a 4% increase in winter bills, mainly because of higher retail electricity prices [1]. The EIA forecasts wholesale electricity prices averaging $52 per megawatt-hour in 2026, 11% more than in 2025, with prices in the PJM region, which covers much of the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest, set to rise 41% [2]. Higher wholesale costs reach household bills over time as utilities adjust their rates.
What does this mean for inflation?
Energy has been the main source of inflation in 2026. In August, the consumer price index for energy was 16.3% higher than a year earlier, while overall prices rose 3.4% [6]. Lower propane and steady natural gas costs would ease some of the pressure on household budgets this winter, while heating oil and electricity add to it [1].
What could change the forecast?
Weather is the biggest swing factor. The EIA runs two side cases: in a winter 10% colder than its base case, natural gas use rises 6% and spending 5% above last winter; in a winter 10% warmer, gas use falls 8% and spending 4% [1]. The EIA noted that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has identified a strong El Niño pattern this winter, which could produce large temperature variation [1]. For heating oil, the course of the Middle East conflict and global refining output will matter most [1][2].
The EIA expects heating oil bills to rise 21% and electric heating bills 4% this winter, while natural gas bills, for 46% of US homes, stay close to last winter's level.
Frequently asked questions
Will heating costs go up this winter?
It depends on the fuel. The EIA expects spending to rise 21% for heating oil and about 4% for electricity, fall about 3% for propane, and stay close to last winter for natural gas [1].
Why is heating oil so expensive in 2026?
Global distillate production has fallen and crude prices rose after the war with Iran disrupted supplies; East Coast distillate stocks were 32% below normal in September 2026 [1][2].
What is the price of natural gas in October 2026?
Front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures closed at $3.22 per MMBtu on October 9, 2026, DataPorium data show [3]. The EIA forecasts a 2027 average spot price of $3.16 [2].
What percentage of homes heat with natural gas?
Natural gas was the main heating fuel in 46% of US homes in 2024, according to Census Bureau survey data cited by the EIA [1].
Sources & References
- [1] U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook 2026-27 (published October 6, 2026)
- [2] U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released October 6, 2026)
- [3] DataPorium Commodities (natural gas, Brent and WTI futures, daily closes)
- [4] DataPorium Energy (weekly US retail diesel and gasoline prices)
- [5] U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices, weekly history
- [6] BLS, Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (released September 11, 2026)
