EUR/USD traded at 1.1380 on July 13, 2026, down from a 2026 high of 1.1799 on April 15 and from about 1.1755 at the start of the year, according to DataPorium forex data [1]. The euro has weakened even though the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11 while the Federal Reserve left its target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17 [2][3]. The reason is that the rate gap between the two central banks, still about 1.4 percentage points in favor of the dollar, has been reinforced by an energy shock that pushed US inflation to 3.5% in June and euro area inflation to 2.8%, and by rising US bond yields [4][5][6]. As of July 14, 2026, the pair sits near the bottom of its 2026 range.
Where EUR/USD stands in July 2026
The euro's 2026 path has three phases. From January to mid April the pair rose from roughly 1.1755 to 1.1799, extending the strong euro rally of 2025. From mid April to late June it fell steadily, reaching a low of 1.1359 on June 24. Since then it has stabilized between 1.137 and 1.145 [1]. The table shows selected closes from DataPorium.
| Date | EUR/USD close | Context |
|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2026 | 1.1553 | End of first quarter |
| April 15, 2026 | 1.1799 | 2026 high |
| June 11, 2026 | 1.1579 | ECB raises deposit rate to 2.25% |
| June 17, 2026 | 1.1502 | Fed holds at 3.50% to 3.75% |
| June 24, 2026 | 1.1359 | 2026 low |
| June 30, 2026 | 1.1422 | End of first half |
| July 13, 2026 | 1.1380 | Latest close before US June CPI |
A decline of about 3.5% from the April high is modest by the standards of the pair, but its timing is telling. The euro peaked just as energy prices began to feed into consumer inflation on both sides of the Atlantic, and it fell fastest in June, when both central banks met [1].
The ECB vs Fed rate gap in numbers
On June 11 the ECB Governing Council raised all three key rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate to 2.40% and the marginal lending rate to 2.65%, effective June 17 [2]. It said supply disruptions in the Middle East were generating inflation pressures, and its staff projections put euro area headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, with growth of just 0.8% this year [2].
Six days later the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, noting that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and that inflation remained elevated relative to its 2% goal, in part because of supply shocks in sectors including energy [3]. The midpoint of the Fed's range, 3.625%, is therefore about 1.375 percentage points above the ECB deposit rate, compared with 1.625 points before the ECB's move [2][3].
Why a narrower gap did not lift the euro
Exchange rates respond to expected future rates, not only current ones, and to bond yields as well as policy rates. The US 2 year Treasury yield rose from 3.96% on July 1 to 4.06% on July 10, and the 10 year yield rose from 4.35% to 4.42% over the same days [6]. Those market yields sit well above the Fed's policy range, a sign that investors see little room for US cuts while inflation runs at 3.5%. The ECB's 25 basis point move, by contrast, was already anticipated and was paired with a downgrade of euro area growth to 0.8% [2]. A central bank that raises rates into a weak economy because of imported energy costs does not usually attract capital; one that holds high rates in a solid economy does.
Inflation on both sides of the Atlantic
Eurostat's flash estimate put euro area annual inflation at 2.8% in June 2026, down from 3.2% in May. Energy was still the largest component at 8.7% (10.8% in May), followed by services at 3.2%, food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.6% and non energy industrial goods at 0.9% [4]. In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on July 14 that the all items CPI fell 0.4% in June, the largest one month decline since April 2020, as energy prices dropped 5.7% in the month. The annual rate eased to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, and core CPI was unchanged in the month and 2.6% over the year [5].
Both regions saw inflation cool in June as energy prices retreated. But US headline inflation, at 3.5%, remains higher than the euro area's 2.8%, and US core inflation of 2.6% is close to the ECB's core projection of 2.5% for the year [2][4][5]. Higher inflation with a higher policy rate keeps US real short term rates roughly in line with Europe's, so the nominal yield advantage of the dollar is not eroded by inflation differences.
What could move EUR/USD in the second half of 2026
Three scenarios frame the outlook, none of them a forecast:
- Energy prices keep falling. US headline inflation would converge toward core near 2.6%, reopening the debate about Fed cuts, and the rate gap would narrow further. This favors a higher euro [3][5].
- Energy prices stay high. The ECB would face pressure to raise again into 0.8% growth, while the Fed holds. History suggests the currency of the energy importer suffers, which favors the dollar [2].
- US growth slows sharply. A weaker labor market would pull US yields down faster than European yields and lift the euro, even without ECB action [6].
The market oriented reading is that the euro's problem in 2026 is not the ECB's rate level but the region's growth and energy dependence. Structural reforms that lower energy costs and raise investment would do more for the euro than another 25 basis points. Investors may consider that the current 1.14 area already prices a meaningful US rate advantage; the risk is a shift in energy prices, not the next scheduled meeting. Live rates for the pair are available on DataPorium's forex page [1].
The euro fell in 2026 despite an ECB rate hike because the dollar still yields about 1.4 percentage points more and the energy shock hurts the euro area economy more than the United States.
Key takeaways
- EUR/USD closed at 1.1380 on July 13, 2026, about 3.5% below its April 15 high of 1.1799 and near its June 24 low of 1.1359 [1].
- The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11 while the Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17, leaving a gap of about 1.4 percentage points [2][3].
- Euro area inflation fell to 2.8% in June and US inflation to 3.5%, both driven by lower energy prices, but US core inflation of 2.6% keeps US yields elevated [4][5].
- US 2 year yields near 4.06% signal that markets expect the Fed to stay on hold, which supports the dollar [6].
Frequently asked questions
What is the EUR/USD exchange rate today in July 2026?
EUR/USD closed at 1.1380 on July 13, 2026, according to DataPorium, after trading between a low of 1.1359 on June 24 and a high of 1.1799 on April 15 this year [1].
Why is the euro weaker even though the ECB raised rates?
The Fed's 3.50% to 3.75% range still exceeds the ECB's 2.25% deposit rate by about 1.4 points, US bond yields have risen, and the energy shock weighs more on euro area growth, which the ECB projects at only 0.8% for 2026 [2][3][6].
What is the interest rate difference between the ECB and the Fed in 2026?
After the ECB's June 11 hike, the ECB deposit rate is 2.25% and the Fed's target range midpoint is 3.625%, a gap of about 1.375 percentage points in favor of the dollar [2][3].
How does inflation compare in the US and the euro area in mid 2026?
US CPI inflation was 3.5% in June 2026 with core at 2.6%, while euro area flash inflation was 2.8% with energy at 8.7% and services at 3.2% [4][5].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Forex: EUR/USD daily and monthly exchange rates
- [2] ECB: Monetary policy decisions, 11 June 2026
- [3] Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, June 17, 2026
- [4] Eurostat: Flash estimate, euro area annual inflation down to 2.8% in June 2026
- [5] BLS: Consumer Price Index, June 2026 (released July 14, 2026)
- [6] U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, July 2026
