The 12-month home value forecast in DataPorium's housing data calls for the typical U.S. home value to rise 1.7% between August 2026 and August 2027 on the raw index and 1.4% on the seasonally adjusted index, after a dip of 0.8% through November 2026 [1]. The forecast is based on August 2026 data, a month in which mortgage rates were back above 6.5% [4]. Across the largest metros the 12-month outlook ranges from +4.1% in Milwaukee and Hartford to -2.1% in Austin [1].
What the 12-month home value forecast says for the United States
The forecast is published at one, three and twelve month horizons, in raw and seasonally adjusted form. The current set, based on August 2026 data, is shown below [1].
| Horizon (from August 2026) | Raw home value index | Seasonally adjusted index |
|---|---|---|
| One month, to September 2026 | -0.1% | +0.2% |
| Three months, to November 2026 | -0.8% | +0.6% |
| Twelve months, to August 2027 | +1.7% | +1.4% |
Source: DataPorium Housing Market Insights, forecasts based on August 2026 data [1].
The raw and adjusted figures differ because home values normally soften in the autumn and winter; the -0.8% raw forecast through November is mostly seasonal. The seasonally adjusted path of +0.2%, +0.6% and +1.4% describes a market that keeps rising slowly rather than one that turns down. The same forecast expects rents to grow faster than home values: single-family rents are forecast to rise 2.6% and multifamily rents 1.9% over the twelve months to August 2027 [1].
Which markets are expected to rise or fall
The metro forecasts in DataPorium's housing data sort the largest markets into three groups [1]. Values are the raw 12-month change to August 2027, with the seasonally adjusted forecast in parentheses.
- Expected to rise 2% or more: Milwaukee +4.1% (3.8%), Hartford +4.1% (3.8%), New York +3.6% (3.5%), Chicago +3.3% (3.1%), Miami +2.9% (2.6%), Los Angeles +2.2% (2.3%)
- Expected to be roughly flat: Boston +1.8% (1.4%), San Francisco +1.6% (1.4%), Atlanta +1.3% (0.8%), Tampa +0.9% (0.5%), Denver +0.5% (0.2%), Seattle +0.3% (-0.5%), Dallas +0.1% (-0.3%), Houston +0.1% (-0.2%)
- Expected to fall: Phoenix -0.5% (-0.7%), Austin -2.1% (-2.1%)
The ranking largely extends the past year. In DataPorium's data, typical home values in the twelve months to August 31, 2026 rose 4.9% in the Chicago metro and 4.7% in the New York metro, while they fell 2.3% in Dallas, 1.9% in Houston and 1.5% in Seattle [1]. The forecast expects the Northeast and Midwest to keep leading, but at a slower pace, and expects the Texas metros to stop falling without recovering. The one notable turn is Miami, where values were 0.5% lower than a year earlier in August and are now forecast to rise 2.9% [1].
How the near-term and 12-month views differ
Several metros are forecast to fall through November and then recover. Los Angeles is expected to drop 2.4% on the raw index by November before ending August 2027 up 2.2%; Seattle -2.2% then +0.3%; Denver -2.1% then +0.5%; Dallas -1.7% then +0.1% [1]. Austin is the exception: -2.5% by November and still -2.1% a year out [1]. Readers can view the forecast alongside current values, inventory and days to pending for any metro or ZIP code on DataPorium's housing market page.
The conditions behind the forecast
August was a mixed month for the largest markets. In the New York metro, the typical home value was $735,076 at the end of August 2026, inventory was 2.6% higher than a year earlier, homes took a median of 30 days to go pending and 16% of listings had a price cut [1]. In the Chicago metro the typical value was $357,265, and in Dallas $360,437, with values up 4.9% in one and down 2.3% in the other over the year [1]. The spread between metros, not the national average, is the main story of the data.
Mortgage rates are the main risk to the forecast. Freddie Mac's survey shows the 30-year rate at 6.76% on September 10 and 6.95% on September 17, 2026, a jump of 19 basis points in one week and the highest reading since January 2025 [3][4]. The forecast was made from August data, when rates were near 6.7% [4]. Fannie Mae's August outlook, which assumed a 6.8% rate in the fourth quarter, projects home price growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, a slower 2027 than the 12-month forecast path implies [2].
The 12-month forecast on DataPorium expects U.S. home values to rise 1.7% by August 2027, with Milwaukee, Hartford and New York leading and Austin still falling.
How to read a home value forecast
Forecasts of 1% to 2% a year are close to the noise in the data, and the metro spread of about six percentage points matters more than the national figure. For a $400,000 home, a 1.4% adjusted gain is about $5,600, less than a year of property taxes and insurance in most states. The useful signal is the sign and the ranking: markets forecast to keep falling (Austin, Phoenix) are markets where supply is still adjusting, while markets forecast to rise 3% to 4% (Milwaukee, Hartford, New York, Chicago) are markets where supply is fixed and demand is steady. With rents forecast to rise faster than home values over the coming year, the forecast points to rental income rather than price gains as the larger part of a property's return [1].
One view is that a forecast of slow growth is good news: it means prices are being set by incomes and supply rather than by credit conditions, and that the correction after 2022 has run without a crash. The counterpoint is that a further rise in rates toward 7% would test the forecast quickly, as the September readings already show [3].
Frequently asked questions
What is the home value forecast for 2027?
The 12-month forecast on DataPorium, based on August 2026 data, expects U.S. home values to rise 1.7% on the raw index and 1.4% seasonally adjusted between August 2026 and August 2027 [1].
Which housing markets are expected to fall in the next 12 months?
Among the largest metros, Austin (-2.1%) and Phoenix (-0.5%) are forecast to decline through August 2027, while Dallas, Houston and Seattle are expected to be roughly flat [1].
Which cities are expected to see the biggest home price gains?
Milwaukee and Hartford lead at +4.1%, followed by New York (+3.6%), Chicago (+3.3%) and Miami (+2.9%) over the twelve months to August 2027 [1].
Will home prices drop in late 2026?
The raw forecast shows a 0.8% decline through November 2026, but this is mostly seasonal; the seasonally adjusted index is forecast to rise 0.6% over the same period [1].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Housing Market Insights (home values, forecasts and rents by state, metro, city and ZIP)
- [2] Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research: Housing Forecast, August 2026
- [3] Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey Archive
- [4] FRED: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (Freddie Mac PMMS)
