The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40% in Freddie Mac's survey for the week of October 8, 2026, the highest since November 16, 2023 and up from 6.43% on July 2, 2026 [1]. The 15-year rate rose to 6.73% [1]. A year earlier, on October 9, 2025, the 30-year rate was 6.30%, so the monthly principal and interest on a median-priced home with 20% down is about $252 higher at today's rate [1][4].
What are mortgage rates in October 2026?
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey is the most widely quoted weekly average of US mortgage rates. It is based on loan applications submitted to Freddie Mac by lenders across the country and is published every Thursday [1]. DataPorium tracks the same weekly series on its interest rates page [2].
| Week of | 30-year fixed | 15-year fixed | 10-year Treasury yield (same day) |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 9, 2025 | 6.30% | 5.53% | 4.05% (October 10) |
| February 26, 2026 (2026 low) | 5.98% | 5.44% | 3.97% (February 27) |
| July 2, 2026 | 6.43% | 5.79% | 4.49% |
| September 3, 2026 | 6.71% | 6.04% | 4.77% |
| September 17, 2026 | 6.95% | 6.26% | 4.94% |
| September 24, 2026 | 7.03% | 6.42% | 5.18% |
| October 1, 2026 | 7.28% | 6.60% | 5.24% |
| October 8, 2026 | 7.40% | 6.73% | 5.22% |
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey [1]; Treasury yields from DataPorium Interest Rates (daily par yield curve) [2].
The 30-year rate rose for six weeks in a row through October 8, from 6.66% on August 27; since September 3 alone it is up 0.69 percentage points [1]. It crossed 7% on September 24, 2026, for the first time since January 2025, when it last stood at 7.04% [1]. The 15-year rate, often used by refinancing borrowers who want to pay off a loan faster, rose from 6.04% to 6.73% over the same six weeks [1].
The year started in the other direction. The 30-year rate fell to 5.98% on February 26, 2026, its low for the year, before rising through the spring and summer [1].
Why are mortgage rates going up?
Long-term Treasury yields jumped
Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the Federal Reserve's short-term rate, because most 30-year mortgages are repaid or refinanced within about a decade and are funded by investors who compare them with Treasury bonds. DataPorium data show the 10-year yield rose from 4.44% on June 30, 2026 to 5.29% on September 30 and 5.22% on October 8 [2]. It closed at 5.31% on October 5, its highest level since 2002 in the Treasury's daily data [2].
The gap between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield has been fairly stable. It was 2.18 percentage points on October 8, 2026 (7.40% minus 5.22%), compared with about 2.25 points a year earlier (6.30% minus 4.05%) [1][2]. In other words, almost all of the increase in mortgage rates since the summer came from higher Treasury yields, not from lenders charging a wider margin.
The Fed raised rates and inflation stayed above target
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, in a 12-0 vote, saying that inflation "remains elevated" [3]. Consumer prices rose 3.4% in the 12 months through August 2026, with gasoline up 27.4% over the year [6]. Higher short-term rates and persistent inflation push investors to demand more yield on long-term bonds, and mortgage rates move with them.
Markets expect more. On October 2, 2026, futures pricing tracked by the CME FedWatch tool put the chance of another quarter-point hike at the October 27-28 meeting at 17%, and the chance of a hike by December above 75% [5]. Those odds change daily and are not a forecast.
How much does a 7.40% mortgage cost on a typical home?
The median price of an existing home sold in August 2026 was $429,100, according to the National Association of Realtors, as reported by Haver Analytics [4]. With 20% down, the loan is $343,280. The table shows the monthly principal and interest on that loan at different points in the past year. It excludes property taxes, insurance and mortgage insurance, and holds the home price constant so that only the rate changes.
| 30-year rate | When | Monthly principal and interest | Per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.98% | February 26, 2026 | $2,054 | $24,645 |
| 6.30% | October 9, 2025 | $2,125 | $25,498 |
| 6.43% | July 2, 2026 | $2,154 | $25,848 |
| 7.03% | September 24, 2026 | $2,291 | $27,489 |
| 7.40% | October 8, 2026 | $2,377 | $28,522 |
Source: DataPorium calculation using Freddie Mac weekly rates [1] and the NAR August 2026 median existing-home price of $429,100 [4]; standard 30-year amortization, 20% down payment.
At 7.40%, the monthly payment is $252 higher than at the 6.30% rate of a year earlier, and $323 higher than at the February low of 5.98%. Over the full 30 years, a borrower at 7.40% would pay about $512,000 in interest on the $343,280 loan, compared with about $422,000 at 6.30%, a difference of roughly $90,700. Using the common rule that principal and interest should take no more than 25% of gross income, the payment at 7.40% needs a household income of about $114,000, up from about $102,000 at 6.30%.
What higher rates mean for home sales and prices
The housing market was already slowing before rates crossed 7%. Existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the third monthly decline in a row and the lowest level since June 2025 [4]. The median price of $429,100 was down 1.7% from July but still 1.6% higher than a year earlier [4].
Supply is building. Unsold inventory rose to 1.62 million homes in August, the most since November 2019, equal to 4.9 months of sales at the current pace, the highest since November 2015 [4]. A balanced market is often described as about six months of supply, so the market is moving toward buyers but is not there yet. Those August figures reflect contracts signed mostly in June and July, when the 30-year rate was between 6.43% and 6.66% [1][4]. Sales closed in October and November will show the effect of rates above 7%.
Higher rates also deepen the "lock-in effect": owners with mortgages taken out at lower rates are less willing to sell and take on a new loan at 7.40%, which limits the number of homes for sale even as demand weakens.
The 30-year mortgage rate rose from 6.43% in early July 2026 to 7.40% on October 8, adding about $223 a month to the payment on a median-priced home compared with July.
Is refinancing still worth it?
For most borrowers, the math has turned against refinancing. Anyone who took out a loan when rates were near 6%, as in February 2026, would face a higher rate today [1]. A refinance generally pays off only when the new rate is well below the existing one, enough that the monthly savings cover closing costs within a few years. With the 30-year rate up almost a full point since early July and the 15-year rate at 6.73%, fewer existing loans meet that test [1].
Freddie Mac publishes its next weekly readings on Thursdays; the October 15, 2026 survey and later weeks update the numbers in this article [1].
Frequently asked questions
What is the 30-year mortgage rate in October 2026?
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% for the week of October 8, 2026, up from 7.28% a week earlier [1]. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.73% [1].
Why did mortgage rates go above 7% in 2026?
The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% in September 2026, and mortgage rates track it closely [2]. The Fed's September 16 rate hike and inflation of 3.4% in August added to the pressure [3][6].
When were mortgage rates last this high?
The last time the weekly 30-year average was at or above 7.40% was November 16, 2023, when it was 7.44% [1]. The 2026 low was 5.98% on February 26 [1].
How much is a mortgage payment on a median-priced home at 7.40%?
On the August 2026 median existing-home price of $429,100 with 20% down, principal and interest come to about $2,377 a month at 7.40% [1][4]. Taxes and insurance are extra.
Sources & References
- [1] Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (weekly averages through October 8, 2026)
- [2] DataPorium Interest Rates (mortgage averages, Treasury yields and Fed decisions)
- [3] Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- [4] Haver Analytics, U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in August to Lowest Level Since June 2025 (NAR data, September 2026)
- [5] CNBC, Fed rate hike odds decline after September jobs report (October 2, 2026)
- [6] BLS, Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (released September 11, 2026)
