Among the 331 U.S. counties that cast at least 100,000 presidential votes in 2024, Hidalgo County, Texas, shifted the most toward Republicans between 2016 and 2024, from D+40.5 to R+2.9, a 43.3-point move, according to DataPorium data [1][2]. Henry County, Georgia, shifted the most toward Democrats, from D+4.4 to D+29.7, a 25.3-point move [1][2]. Overall, 144 of the 331 counties moved toward Republicans and 187 toward Democrats, while the national margin moved from D+2.1 in 2016 to R+1.5 in 2024 [1][2].
How is the shift measured?
The margin is the Republican share of the vote minus the Democratic share, in percentage points: R+2.9 means the Republican candidate led by 2.9 points and D+4.4 means the Democratic candidate led by 4.4 points. The shift is the 2024 margin minus the 2016 margin. A positive shift is a move toward Republicans and a negative shift is a move toward Democrats; the tables show the size of the move and its direction [1][2].
The list is limited to counties with at least 100,000 presidential votes in 2024, so that a few hundred votes cannot produce a large swing. Shifts are computed from unrounded margins, so a shift can differ by 0.1 point from the difference of the rounded margins shown. Demographic figures are DataPorium's 2023 county estimates, shown next to election results [4].
How many large counties moved a lot?
Thirty-five of the 331 counties shifted more than 10 points toward Republicans and 19 shifted more than 10 points toward Democrats; 77 moved by less than 2 points in either direction [1][2]. Twenty-nine changed party between 2016 and 2024: 17 went from Democratic to Republican, including Riverside County, California, and Bucks County, Pennsylvania, and 12 went from Republican to Democratic, including Johnson County, Kansas, and Kent County, Michigan [1][2].
Which counties shifted most toward Republicans?
The ten largest moves toward Republicans were in counties with large Hispanic or immigrant populations, in Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey [1][2][4].
| County | 2016 | 2024 | Shift | Hispanic | College degree |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hidalgo County, Texas | D+40.5 | R+2.9 | 43.3 to R | 91.9% | 20.3% |
| Miami-Dade County, Florida | D+29.6 | R+11.4 | 41.0 to R | 68.8% | 33.2% |
| Cameron County, Texas | D+32.5 | R+5.8 | 38.3 to R | 89.3% | 20.5% |
| Bronx County, New York | D+79.1 | D+45.1 | 34.0 to R | 54.9% | 22.0% |
| Queens County, New York | D+53.6 | D+24.2 | 29.4 to R | 27.9% | 35.2% |
| El Paso County, Texas | D+43.1 | D+15.1 | 28.0 to R | 82.7% | 25.4% |
| Osceola County, Florida | D+25.1 | R+1.5 | 26.5 to R | 55.0% | 28.3% |
| Passaic County, New Jersey | D+22.5 | R+2.9 | 25.4 to R | 43.4% | 30.3% |
| Hudson County, New Jersey | D+52.4 | D+28.1 | 24.3 to R | 40.7% | 47.9% |
| Kings County, New York | D+62.0 | D+43.3 | 18.7 to R | 18.9% | 41.4% |
Source: DataPorium Election Results, certified 2016 and 2024 presidential results by county, with 2023 demographic estimates [1][2][4].
Five of the ten changed party: Hidalgo, Miami-Dade, Cameron, Osceola and Passaic counties voted Democratic in 2016 and Republican in 2024 [1][2]. The other five still voted Democratic in 2024, by margins of 15 to 45 points. The median foreign-born share of these ten counties is 33.5%, against 9.8% for all 331 large counties [4]. The move was spread over both halves of the period: Hidalgo County moved 23.4 points toward Republicans from 2016 to 2020 and 19.9 points from 2020 to 2024, while Queens County moved 8.7 and then 20.6 points [1][2][3].
Which counties shifted most toward Democrats?
The ten largest moves toward Democrats were in metropolitan-area counties, most of them with high shares of college graduates, in Georgia, Colorado, Indiana, Oregon, North Carolina and Maryland [1][2][4].
| County | 2016 | 2024 | Shift | Hispanic | College degree |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry County, Georgia | D+4.4 | D+29.7 | 25.3 to D | 8.0% | 28.0% |
| Forsyth County, Georgia | R+47.2 | R+33.1 | 14.1 to D | 10.0% | 56.6% |
| Deschutes County, Oregon | R+3.3 | D+10.4 | 13.7 to D | 8.9% | 43.3% |
| Hamilton County, Indiana | R+19.5 | R+6.1 | 13.5 to D | 5.4% | 61.9% |
| Cobb County, Georgia | D+2.2 | D+14.9 | 12.7 to D | 14.7% | 50.4% |
| Larimer County, Colorado | D+4.9 | D+17.6 | 12.7 to D | 12.7% | 51.7% |
| Jefferson County, Colorado | D+6.9 | D+19.5 | 12.6 to D | 15.9% | 50.8% |
| El Paso County, Colorado | R+22.3 | R+9.8 | 12.5 to D | 18.3% | 41.1% |
| Cabarrus County, North Carolina | R+19.6 | R+7.7 | 11.9 to D | 12.4% | 37.7% |
| Anne Arundel County, Maryland | D+2.2 | D+13.8 | 11.6 to D | 10.0% | 45.2% |
Source: DataPorium Election Results, certified 2016 and 2024 presidential results by county, with 2023 demographic estimates [1][2][4].
One of the ten changed party: Deschutes County, Oregon, voted Republican in 2016 and Democratic in 2024 [1][2]. The median college-degree share of these ten counties is 47.8% and their median household income is $95,038, against 37.0% and $83,060 for all 331 large counties [4]. Henry County, Georgia, differs from the rest of the group: it has a Black majority (50.8%) and a college-degree share of 28.0% [4]. Unlike the Republican-shift group, most of this move came between 2016 and 2020. Forsyth County, Georgia, moved 14.0 points toward Democrats from 2016 to 2020 and 0.1 point from 2020 to 2024, and Hamilton County, Indiana, 12.7 points and then 0.7 point [1][2][3].
Which demographics line up with the shifts?
Across all 331 large counties, the shift since 2016 tracks ethnicity and immigration more closely than income or age. The figures below are correlation coefficients, which run from -1 to 1; a positive value means counties with more of the trait tended to move toward Republicans, and a negative value means they tended to move toward Democrats [1][2][4].
- Hispanic share: 0.65. The 25 counties at least 40% Hispanic shifted a median 11.2 points toward Republicans, and 23 of them moved in that direction. The 129 counties under 10% Hispanic shifted a median 3.1 points toward Democrats, and 101 of them moved in that direction.
- Foreign-born share: 0.61. All 18 counties where at least 30% of residents were born abroad moved toward Republicans.
- College-degree share: -0.29. The 44 counties where at least 50% hold a college degree shifted a median 1.5 points toward Democrats; the 23 counties under 25% shifted a median 8.1 points toward Republicans.
- Median household income: -0.16, and median age: -0.05, both weak.
- White share: -0.48; Black share: 0.03.
Education and ethnicity overlap, so the groups are worth reading together. The 44 counties with a college-degree share of at least 45% and a Hispanic share under 15% shifted a median 5.3 points toward Democrats, and only 6 of them moved toward Republicans [4]. The timing also differs: from 2016 to 2020, 46 of the 331 counties moved toward Republicans, and from 2020 to 2024, 296 did [1][2][3]. The link with Hispanic share was 0.52 in the first period and 0.67 in the second, while the link with college-degree share was -0.36 and then -0.16 [4].
These are county-level patterns. They describe where the vote moved, not how any individual voter or group voted, and a county's demographics are only one of many differences between places.
From 2016 to 2024, large counties with more Hispanic and foreign-born residents moved toward Republicans, led by Hidalgo County, Texas (43.3 points), while counties with high college-degree shares moved toward Democrats, led by Henry County, Georgia (25.3 points).
Frequently asked questions
Which county shifted the most toward Republicans since 2016?
Among counties with at least 100,000 votes, Hidalgo County, Texas, moved 43.3 points, from D+40.5 in 2016 to R+2.9 in 2024 [1][2].
Which county shifted the most toward Democrats since 2016?
Henry County, Georgia, moved 25.3 points, from D+4.4 in 2016 to D+29.7 in 2024 [1][2].
What is a swing in election results?
A swing, or shift, is the change in the margin between two elections. Nationally, the presidential margin moved 3.6 points toward Republicans, from D+2.1 in 2016 to R+1.5 in 2024 [1][2].
Do county shifts show how Hispanic voters voted?
No. County results show how places voted. Counties at least 40% Hispanic shifted a median 11.2 points toward Republicans, but that figure includes every voter in those counties [1][2][4].
