How Earnings Season Works: Beats, Misses and Guidance

Earnings season is the stretch of about six weeks after each calendar quarter when most large US companies report results, and it traditionally opens with the big banks: for the third quarter of 2026, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) scheduled its report for October 13 ^[9]. A company "beats" when its earnings per share (EPS) come in above the consensus, the average of analysts' estimates. Over the five years to October 2026, 78% of S&P 500 companies beat in a typical quarter, and 87% did in the second quarter of 2026 ^[4][5]. Because beats are the norm, a stock's reaction often depends as much on guidance, the company's own forecast for the next quarter or year, as on the quarter itself ^[4][8].

When is earnings season?

Calendar quarters end on March 31, June 30, September 30 and December 31. Companies then have a legal deadline to file their quarterly report (Form 10-Q) with the Securities and Exchange Commission: 40 days after the quarter ends for large accelerated and accelerated filers, and 45 days for all other companies. No 10-Q is filed for the fourth quarter, which is covered by the annual report ^[14]. Most large companies publish a press release and hold a conference call well before that deadline, and file the release with the SEC on a Form 8-K, as JPMorgan Chase did with its second-quarter 2026 results on July 14, 2026 ^[7].

The order is roughly the same every quarter. The largest banks report first, about two weeks after the quarter closes. Technology and consumer companies follow in the second half of October and early November. Companies whose fiscal quarters do not match the calendar report later or earlier: Nvidia (NVDA) reported its most recent quarter on August 26, 2026, and Walmart (WMT) is listed in DataPorium's calendar for November 19, 2026 ^[1]. That is also why 19 S&P 500 companies had already reported "third-quarter" results by October 9, 2026, before the banks started ^[4].

Source: company announcements and DataPorium Markets Calendar, as scheduled on October 13, 2026 ^{[1][9][10][11][12][13]}.

Timing matters for reading the price reaction. Banks report before the stock market opens, so the reaction shows up the same day. Netflix, Tesla and Microsoft report after the 4:00 p.m. close, so the first full trading day of reaction is the next day. In the week starting October 12, 2026, 25 S&P 500 companies were scheduled to report ^[4].

What is a consensus estimate?

Analysts at brokerage firms publish forecasts of each company's revenue and EPS. Data providers average them into a consensus; FactSet, whose weekly Earnings Insight report is a widely quoted scorecard, uses the mean EPS estimate ^[4]. The consensus moves during the quarter as analysts update their models, and it usually moves down. Over the past five years, the index-level EPS estimate for the S&P 500 fell by 2.2% on average during a quarter, and by 2.5% over ten years ^[4].

The third quarter of 2026 broke that pattern. The bottom-up EPS estimate for the S&P 500 rose 1.4%, from $88.64 on June 30 to $89.86 on September 30, and the expected year-over-year earnings growth rate rose from 26.7% to 29.6% by October 9 ^[4]. A rising bar is harder to clear than a falling one.

Reported versus adjusted earnings

Companies report earnings under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), and many also publish an "adjusted" figure that removes items they consider one-off. The two can differ a lot. JPMorgan Chase reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $21.2 billion, or $7.70 per share, and $16.9 billion, or $6.14 per share, excluding significant items such as gains related to Visa and certain equity investments ^[7]. Against a mean estimate of $5.59, the reported figure was a 37.7% beat and the adjusted figure a 9.8% beat ^[6][7]. Before calling a quarter a beat, it is worth checking which number is being compared with which estimate.

Traders also talk about a "whisper number": an unofficial expectation, usually higher than the published consensus, that circulates before a report. It is not published or audited, which is one reason a stock can fall on a result that beat the official consensus.

What counts as a beat or a miss?

A beat is an actual result above the consensus, a miss is below it, and an in-line result matches it. The surprise is the gap in percent. On FactSet's numbers, beats are the normal outcome:

Source: FactSet Earnings Insight. Q2 2026 beat rates with 99% of companies reported (September 4, 2026); price moves with 97% reported (August 28, 2026); averages as published on October 9 and August 28, 2026 ^[4][5][6].

Two patterns stand out. First, the reward for beating is small and the penalty for missing is larger: in the second quarter of 2026, companies that beat gained 0.6% on average around the report, while those that missed lost 2.5% ^[6]. Second, the index-wide surprise can be distorted by a few companies. In the second quarter, Alphabet (GOOGL) reported EPS of $9.11 against an estimate of $2.88, helped by a $98 billion gain on equity securities, and Amazon.com (AMZN) reported $5.75 against $1.82, helped by a $53.4 billion gain on investments. Without those two companies, the S&P 500's aggregate surprise fell from 26.5% to 10.8% ^[6].

Because most companies beat, the index's earnings growth rate usually rises as the season goes on. The actual growth rate has exceeded the estimate made at the end of the quarter in 37 of the past 40 quarters; the exceptions were the first quarter of 2020 and the third and fourth quarters of 2022 ^[4].

Why does guidance matter so much?

Guidance is a company's own projection of its revenue, margins or EPS for the coming quarter or year. FactSet classifies guidance as positive when the forecast (or the midpoint of a range) is above the mean analyst estimate the day before it is issued, and negative when it is below ^[4]. For the third quarter of 2026, 116 S&P 500 companies issued EPS guidance: 72 positive and 44 negative. The 72 positive forecasts were the most since FactSet began tracking the measure in 2006, against a five-year average of 42; 44 of the 72 came from information technology companies ^[4].

Guidance resets the bar for the next quarter, and the stock reacts to the new bar as well as the old result. Netflix shows how this works. On July 16, 2026, it reported second-quarter revenue of $12.56 billion, in line with its own forecast, and diluted EPS of $0.80, slightly above it. It forecast third-quarter revenue of $12.86 billion (11.7% growth), an operating margin of 33.2% and EPS of $0.82, and narrowed its 2026 revenue range to $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion ^[8]. Its shares closed at $74.35 on July 16 and at $68.95 on July 17, a fall of 7.3% ^[3].

The first hours can also mislead. On July 14, 2026, the day of its second-quarter report, JPMorgan Chase traded as low as $325.75, 2.6% below the previous close of $334.53, before closing at $342.89, up 2.5% ^[2]. Prices often swing during the conference call, when management discusses guidance and answers analysts' questions.

Beating the consensus is the norm, not the exception: the reaction depends on how large and how clean the beat is, and on what the company says about the next quarter.

How to follow earnings season on DataPorium

The DataPorium markets calendar lists earnings dates by company alongside economic releases ^[1]. Each company page, such as JPMorgan Chase's, shows daily prices, quarterly financial statements, SEC filings and news ^[2]. The biggest daily price moves of the season appear on the market movers page.

A simple checklist for each report:

1. Before: note the scheduled date and whether the release comes before the open or after the close, and what the company guided last quarter.
2. The numbers: compare EPS and revenue with the consensus, and check whether the EPS figure is reported (GAAP) or adjusted.
3. The outlook: compare the new guidance with the consensus for the next quarter and the full year.
4. The quality: look for one-off gains, tax items or margin changes behind the headline number.
5. The reaction: judge it on the first full trading day, not the first minutes after the release.

Frequently asked questions

When does third-quarter 2026 earnings season start?

The big-bank reports that traditionally open the season were scheduled for October 13, 2026 (JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup) and October 14 (Bank of America and Morgan Stanley) ^[1][9][10]. Large companies must file their 10-Q by November 9, 40 days after the quarter ended ^[14].

What percentage of companies beat earnings estimates?

Over the five years to October 2026, 78% of S&P 500 companies reported EPS above the mean estimate in an average quarter, and 77% over ten years. In the second quarter of 2026, the share was 87% with 99% of companies reported ^[4][5].

What is earnings guidance?

Guidance is a company's own forecast of future revenue, margins or earnings. It is positive when it is above the analyst consensus and negative when below; for the third quarter of 2026, 72 S&P 500 companies issued positive EPS guidance and 44 negative ^[4].

What is a good earnings surprise?

The average EPS surprise for the S&P 500 has been 7.5% over five years and 8.0% over ten years, so a beat of a few cents can be smaller than usual ^[4]. One-off gains can inflate a surprise, as with JPMorgan Chase's $7.70 reported EPS versus $6.14 excluding significant items in the second quarter of 2026 ^[7].

Sources & References

1. [1] DataPorium Markets Calendar (earnings dates by company)
2. [2] DataPorium JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock page (daily prices)
3. [3] DataPorium Netflix (NFLX) stock page (daily prices)
4. [4] FactSet, Earnings Insight (October 9, 2026)
5. [5] FactSet, Earnings Insight (September 4, 2026)
6. [6] FactSet, Earnings Insight (August 28, 2026)
7. [7] JPMorgan Chase, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release (July 14, 2026)
8. [8] Netflix, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Q2 2026 Letter to Shareholders (July 16, 2026)
9. [9] JPMorgan Chase, JPMorganChase to Host Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Call (September 17, 2026)
10. [10] Bank of America, Bank of America to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (September 30, 2026)
11. [11] Netflix, Netflix to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (September 14, 2026)
12. [12] Tesla, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, Third Quarter 2026 Production, Deliveries and Deployments (October 2, 2026)
13. [13] Microsoft Investor Relations, Earnings Release FY27 Q1 (accessed October 13, 2026)
14. [14] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Form 10-Q General Instructions (accessed October 13, 2026)