Only one county voted for the candidate who won the presidency in all seven elections from 2000 to 2024: Blaine County, Montana, according to DataPorium county results [1][3]. Measured against the winner of the national popular vote instead, five counties matched all seven results: Marengo County, Alabama; Washington County, Georgia; Osceola County, Florida; and Cameron and Culberson counties in Texas [1]. Fifty-four counties matched the popular-vote winner in every election from 2008 to 2024 [1].
What is a bellwether county?
A bellwether county is one whose presidential vote has matched the national result over many elections. There are two ways to score that match, and they differ in two of the last seven elections. In 2000 and 2016 the candidate who won the national popular vote did not win the Electoral College: Al Gore led the popular vote by 0.5 points in 2000 and Hillary Clinton by 2.1 points in 2016, while George W. Bush and Donald J. Trump won the presidency [1].
- Winner of the presidency: the county voted for the candidate who took office.
- Popular-vote winner: the county voted for the candidate with the most votes nationwide. DataPorium's bellwether record on each county page uses this measure, together with the county's average distance from the national margin [1].
The margin is the Republican share minus the Democratic share, in points. R+1.5 means the Republican led by 1.5 points; D+4.5 means the Democrat led by 4.5 points. Nationally, the margin was D+0.5 in 2000, R+2.5 in 2004, D+7.3 in 2008, D+3.8 in 2012, D+2.1 in 2016, D+4.5 in 2020 and R+1.5 in 2024 [1].
Which counties picked every winner since 2000?
Among the more than 3,100 counties with results in DataPorium's data, six have a perfect record under one of the two measures, and none has a perfect record under both [1].
| County | Winner of presidency | Popular-vote winner | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Average gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine County, Montana | 7 of 7 | 5 of 7 | R+2.5 | D+3.9 | R+5.9 | 6.2 |
| Marengo County, Alabama | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | D+3.5 | D+1.3 | R+3.8 | 2.2 |
| Washington County, Georgia | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | D+0.6 | D+0.7 | R+1.9 | 2.7 |
| Osceola County, Florida | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | D+25.1 | D+13.8 | R+1.5 | 10.4 |
| Cameron County, Texas | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | D+32.5 | D+13.2 | R+5.8 | 14.8 |
| Culberson County, Texas | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | D+22.7 | D+2.7 | R+16.9 | 15.5 |
| United States | D+2.1 | D+4.5 | R+1.5 |
Source: DataPorium Election Results, certified presidential results by county, 2000 to 2024 [1][2][3]. "Average gap" is DataPorium's average distance, in points, between the county's margin and the national margin across the seven elections.
Blaine County, Montana, voted Republican in 2000 (R+5.9) and 2004 (R+4.5), Democratic in 2008 (D+18.7) and 2012 (D+15.3), Republican in 2016 (R+2.5), Democratic in 2020 (D+3.9) and Republican in 2024 (R+5.9) [3]. It is a small county: 3,019 presidential votes were cast there in 2024 [3].
The five popular-vote bellwethers voted for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 2016, so each matched the winner of the presidency in five of seven elections. Two of them tracked the national margin closely: Marengo County, Alabama, was on average 2.2 points from the national margin and Washington County, Georgia, 2.7 points [1]. Osceola County, Florida, matched the 2024 national margin of R+1.5 exactly at one decimal place, after voting D+25.1 in 2016 [1][2].
What do the perfect-record counties have in common?
Not size or region. DataPorium's county profiles show two small counties with Black majorities, Marengo County, Alabama (population 18,851, 50.9% Black) and Washington County, Georgia (19,849, 53.2% Black), and two large counties with Hispanic majorities, Osceola County, Florida (427,415, 56.0% Hispanic) and Cameron County, Texas (426,120, 89.3% Hispanic) [1]. Culberson County, Texas, has 2,195 residents and cast 781 votes in 2024, and Blaine County, Montana, has 6,949 residents [1][3]. Osceola, Cameron and Culberson counties each voted Democratic by more than 20 points in 2016 and Republican in 2024, while Marengo and Washington counties stayed within 4 points of an even result in 2016, 2020 and 2024 [1].
How did bellwether counties vote in 2024?
All 54 counties that matched the popular-vote winner from 2008 to 2024 voted Democratic in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 and Republican in 2024, because those were the national popular-vote results in those years [1]. California and Texas have 8 of them each and Mississippi 7; Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, New Jersey and New York have 3 each [1]. Fifteen of the 54 cast at least 100,000 votes in 2024:
| County | 2024 votes | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade County, Florida | 1,094,105 | D+29.6 | D+7.4 | R+11.4 |
| Riverside County, California | 940,405 | D+5.4 | D+7.9 | R+1.3 |
| San Bernardino County, California | 761,714 | D+10.6 | D+10.6 | R+2.1 |
| Nassau County, New York | 712,299 | D+5.9 | D+9.5 | R+4.2 |
| Hillsborough County, Florida | 671,993 | D+6.9 | D+6.9 | R+3.1 |
| Bucks County, Pennsylvania | 401,028 | D+0.8 | D+4.4 | R+0.1 |
| Fresno County, California | 325,994 | D+6.1 | D+7.8 | R+4.4 |
| San Joaquin County, California | 263,671 | D+14.4 | D+13.9 | R+0.9 |
| Hidalgo County, Texas | 217,265 | D+40.5 | D+17.1 | R+2.9 |
| Passaic County, New Jersey | 202,767 | D+22.5 | D+16.6 | R+2.9 |
| Stanislaus County, California | 197,472 | D+1.8 | D+0.8 | R+11.0 |
| Osceola County, Florida | 172,780 | D+25.1 | D+13.8 | R+1.5 |
| Rockland County, New York | 150,072 | D+6.2 | D+1.7 | R+11.8 |
| Atlantic County, New Jersey | 129,759 | D+7.0 | D+6.7 | R+3.0 |
| Cameron County, Texas | 116,153 | D+32.5 | D+13.2 | R+5.8 |
Source: DataPorium Election Results, certified presidential results by county [1][2]. National margin: D+2.1 in 2016, D+4.5 in 2020 and R+1.5 in 2024.
Eleven of the 15 were within 3 points of the national margin of R+1.5 in 2024. The other four were more Republican than the nation: Cameron County by 4.3 points, and Miami-Dade, Stanislaus and Rockland counties by more than 9 points each [2].
Which famous bellwethers broke their streaks?
Two counties often described as bellwethers ended their runs in the last two elections, one in each direction.
- Vigo County, Indiana: voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 2000 to 2016, then voted R+14.7 in 2020, when Joe Biden won. In 2024 it voted R+18.1, again matching the winner, for a record of 6 of 7 since 2000 [4].
- Clallam County, Washington: voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 2000 to 2020, including R+2.8 in 2016 and D+3.4 in 2020, then voted D+7.8 in 2024, when Donald J. Trump won. Its record since 2000 is also 6 of 7 [5].
By the popular-vote measure, both counties score 4 of 7, because each voted for Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016 [4][5].
Which states have the best records?
At the state level, DataPorium data go back to 1976. Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Nevada and Delaware each matched the national popular-vote winner in 11 of the 13 presidential elections from 1976 to 2024 [1][6]. Nevada has the longest current run among them, six straight popular-vote matches from 2004 to 2024; Pennsylvania's current run is two elections [1][6].
From 2000 to 2024, Blaine County, Montana, was the only county that voted for every winner of the presidency, while five counties matched every winner of the national popular vote.
Frequently asked questions
Which county has voted for the winning president every time since 2000?
Blaine County, Montana, is the only county in DataPorium's data that voted for the winner of the presidency in all seven elections from 2000 to 2024. It voted R+5.9 in 2024 [3].
Is Vigo County, Indiana, still a bellwether?
Vigo County voted for the winner from 2000 to 2016, voted for Donald J. Trump in 2020 when Joe Biden won, and voted R+18.1 in 2024. Its record since 2000 is 6 of 7 [4].
How many bellwether counties are there?
It depends on the measure and the period. Since 2000, 1 county matched every winner of the presidency and 5 matched every popular-vote winner; since 2008, 54 matched every popular-vote winner [1].
Do bellwether counties predict elections?
A bellwether record describes past results only. Records change: Clallam County, Washington, matched the winner from 2000 to 2020 and then did not in 2024 [5].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Election Results (presidential results by county, 2000 to 2024)
- [2] DataPorium Election Results (2024 presidential results by county)
- [3] DataPorium Election Results (Blaine County, Montana)
- [4] DataPorium Election Results (Vigo County, Indiana)
- [5] DataPorium Election Results (Clallam County, Washington)
- [6] DataPorium Election Results (Pennsylvania)
