The closest state in the 2024 presidential election was Wisconsin, where Donald Trump (R) led Kamala Harris (D) by 0.9 points, or 29,397 votes, followed by Michigan at R+1.4 and Pennsylvania at R+1.7 [1]. DataPorium data show that all ten of the closest states moved toward Republicans between 2020 and 2024, by 1.5 to 5.8 points, while the national popular vote went from D+4.5 in 2020 to R+1.5 in 2024 [1][3]. Six of those ten states hold a U.S. Senate election and eight a governor's election on November 3, 2026 [6][7].
Which states were closest in the 2024 presidential election?
The margin is the Republican candidate's share of the vote minus the Democratic candidate's share, in percentage points: "R+0.9" means the Republican led by 0.9 points, "D+2.8" that the Democrat led by 2.8 points. Swing is the change in that margin from 2020 to 2024. Turnout is votes for president divided by the citizen voting-age population. The table ranks the ten closest states of 2024 by margin, using certified results [1].
| State | 2024 margin | 2020 margin | 2016 margin | Swing 2020 to 2024 | Turnout 2024 (change vs 2020) | On the 2026 ballot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | R+0.9 | D+0.6 | R+0.8 | 1.5 toward R | 76.5% (+1.4) | Governor |
| Michigan | R+1.4 | D+2.8 | R+0.2 | 4.2 toward R | 74.3% (+0.8) | Senate, governor |
| Pennsylvania | R+1.7 | D+1.2 | R+0.7 | 2.9 toward R | 70.8% (+0.1) | Governor |
| Georgia | R+2.2 | D+0.2 | R+5.1 | 2.4 toward R | 67.9% (+1.1) | Senate, governor |
| New Hampshire | D+2.8 | D+7.4 | D+0.4 | 4.6 toward R | 75.1% (-0.5) | Senate, governor |
| Nevada | R+3.1 | D+2.4 | D+2.5 | 5.5 toward R | 67.1% (-0.8) | Governor |
| North Carolina | R+3.2 | R+1.3 | R+3.7 | 1.9 toward R | 73.2% (+0.9) | Senate |
| Minnesota | D+4.2 | D+7.1 | D+1.5 | 2.9 toward R | 77.2% (-2.5) | Senate, governor |
| Arizona | R+5.5 | D+0.3 | R+3.5 | 5.8 toward R | 64.9% (-2.2) | Governor |
| Virginia | D+5.8 | D+10.1 | D+5.3 | 4.3 toward R | 71.2% (-0.8) | Senate |
Source: DataPorium Election Results, certified presidential results by state for 2016, 2020 and 2024 [1][2]; turnout from DataPorium turnout data [5]; 2026 contests from Ballotpedia as of October 13, 2026 [6][7]. Turnout changes are in percentage points.
Trump carried seven of the ten states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona. Harris carried three: New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia [1]. The smallest vote gaps were in New Hampshire, where Harris led by 22,965 votes, and Wisconsin, where Trump led by 29,397 votes [1]. The next three states by margin were New Jersey (D+5.9), New Mexico (D+6.0) and Maine (D+6.9) [1].
How did the margins change since 2020 and 2016?
2020 to 2024
Every state in the table moved toward Republicans between 2020 and 2024. The largest swings were in Arizona (5.8 points), Nevada (5.5) and New Hampshire (4.6); the smallest were in Wisconsin (1.5) and North Carolina (1.9) [1]. None of the ten moved as far as the nation as a whole, which swung 5.9 points toward Republicans [1][3].
Six of the ten states changed party between the two elections. Joe Biden (D) carried Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona in 2020, and Trump carried all six in 2024 [1]. North Carolina voted Republican both times; New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia voted Democratic both times [1].
2016 to 2024
Measured over eight years, the picture is split evenly. Compared with 2016, five states were more Republican in 2024: Nevada (by 5.6 points), Arizona (2.0), Michigan (1.2), Pennsylvania (1.0) and Wisconsin (0.1) [1][2]. Five were more Democratic: Georgia (by 2.9 points), Minnesota (2.7), New Hampshire (2.4), North Carolina (0.4) and Virginia (0.4) [1][2]. Nevada is the only state of the ten that the Democratic candidate carried in 2016 and the Republican candidate carried in 2024 [1][2].
Wisconsin shows how stable a close state can be: Trump won it by 0.8 points in 2016, Biden by 0.6 points in 2020 and Trump by 0.9 points in 2024 [1][2][9].
What was the national popular vote in 2016, 2020 and 2024?
- 2016: Hillary Clinton (D) 48.2%, Trump (R) 46.1%, a margin of D+2.1, with 136.8 million votes cast; Trump won the Electoral College [3].
- 2020: Biden (D) 51.3%, Trump (R) 46.9%, D+4.5, with 158.4 million votes cast [3].
- 2024: Trump (R) 49.8%, Harris (D) 48.3%, R+1.5, with 155.2 million votes cast [3]. Ballotpedia reports the same shares [4].
Comparing a state with the nation shows its relative lean. In 2024, Wisconsin (R+0.9) and Michigan (R+1.4) voted slightly less Republican than the country (R+1.5), while Pennsylvania (R+1.7) and Georgia (R+2.2) voted slightly more Republican [1][3]. In 2020, Wisconsin (D+0.6) and Pennsylvania (D+1.2) were both less Democratic than the country (D+4.5) [1][3].
Votes for candidates other than the two major parties fell from 5.8% of the national total in 2016 to 1.8% in 2020 and 1.9% in 2024 [3].
How did turnout change in the closest states?
Turnout in the ten states ranged from 64.9% in Arizona to 77.2% in Minnesota in 2024 [5]. Compared with 2020, it rose in five states and fell in five:
- Higher: Wisconsin (+1.4 points to 76.5%), Georgia (+1.1 to 67.9%), North Carolina (+0.9 to 73.2%), Michigan (+0.8 to 74.3%) and Pennsylvania (+0.1 to 70.8%) [5].
- Lower: Minnesota (-2.5 points to 77.2%), Arizona (-2.2 to 64.9%), Nevada (-0.8 to 67.1%), Virginia (-0.8 to 71.2%) and New Hampshire (-0.5 to 75.1%) [5].
The raw vote count tells a similar story. Georgia cast 250,945 more presidential votes in 2024 than in 2020, an increase of 5.0%, and North Carolina 174,339 more (3.2%) [1][5]. Minnesota cast 23,251 fewer votes (-0.7%), and Arizona's total was almost unchanged, up 1,993 votes [1][5]. Nationally, 3.2 million fewer presidential votes were cast in 2024 than in 2020 [3]. The 2024 turnout rates use the 2023 citizen population estimate, the latest available in the data [5].
Which of these states vote for Senate or governor in 2026?
U.S. Senate
Six of the ten states have a regular U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026, for the seats last contested in 2020: Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia [6][8]. Before the election, five of those six seats are held by Democrats (Jon Ossoff, Gary Peters, Tina Smith, Jeanne Shaheen and Mark Warner) and one by a Republican (Thom Tillis of North Carolina) [6]. Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have no Senate election in 2026 [6].
Governor
Eight of the ten elect a governor in 2026: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin [7]. In Georgia and Michigan, the incumbent governor is term-limited, so the office is open [7]. North Carolina and Virginia do not elect a governor in 2026 [7].
Taken together, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire hold both a Senate and a governor's election in 2026; every one of the ten states has at least one of the two races on the ballot [6][7].
Wisconsin was the closest state of 2024 at R+0.9, and all ten of the closest states moved toward Republicans from 2020 by between 1.5 and 5.8 points.
Frequently asked questions
What was the closest state in the 2024 presidential election?
Wisconsin, where Trump led Harris by 0.9 points, 49.6% to 48.7%, a gap of 29,397 votes out of 3,422,918 cast [1].
Which states flipped from 2020 to 2024?
Six states that Biden carried in 2020 voted for Trump in 2024: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin [1]. No state that Trump carried in 2020 voted Democratic in 2024 [1].
What was the popular vote margin in 2024?
Trump received 49.8% of the national vote and Harris 48.3%, a margin of R+1.5 [3][4]. In 2020, Biden led by 4.5 points, and in 2016 Clinton led by 2.1 points [3].
Do the 2024 swing states have Senate races in 2026?
Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia do; Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not [6]. Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin each elect a governor in 2026 [7].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Election Results (2024 presidential results by state)
- [2] DataPorium Election Results (2016 presidential results by state)
- [3] DataPorium Election Results (national presidential vote by year, 1976 to 2024)
- [4] Ballotpedia, Presidential election, 2024 (accessed October 13, 2026)
- [5] DataPorium Election Results (turnout by state, 2020 and 2024)
- [6] Ballotpedia, United States Senate elections, 2026 (accessed October 13, 2026)
- [7] Ballotpedia, Gubernatorial elections, 2026 (accessed October 13, 2026)
- [8] DataPorium Election Results (2020 US Senate results by state)
- [9] DataPorium Election Results (Wisconsin)
