Midterm turnout runs well below turnout in presidential years. Across the 39 states that DataPorium can measure in all five elections from 2016 to 2024, votes cast equaled 52.0% of the citizen voting-age population in the 2018 midterm and 46.9% in 2022, compared with 60.7% in 2016, 67.7% in 2020 and 64.6% in 2024 [1]. The U.S. Census Bureau's survey shows the same pattern: 53.4% of voting-age citizens reported voting in 2018 and 52.2% in 2022, against 66.8% in 2020 and 65.3% in 2024 [2][3][4].
How does midterm turnout compare with presidential years?
The table sets two measures side by side. DataPorium's figure counts the votes cast in each state's highest-turnout race (president, governor or U.S. Senate) and divides them by the number of adult U.S. citizens, added up across the same 39 states for every year so that the years are comparable [1]. The Census Bureau's figure comes from the Current Population Survey, in which people report whether they voted [2].
| Year | Election | DataPorium turnout, 39 states (share of citizen voting-age population) | Census reported voting rate (citizen voting-age population) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Presidential | 60.7% | 61.4% |
| 2018 | Midterm | 52.0% | 53.4% |
| 2020 | Presidential | 67.7% | 66.8% |
| 2022 | Midterm | 46.9% | 52.2% |
| 2024 | Presidential | 64.6% | 65.3% |
Source: DataPorium Election Results, certified results and citizen population estimates, aggregated across 39 states [1]; U.S. Census Bureau releases for 2016, 2018 and 2022, 2020, and 2024 [5][2][3][4]. The 2024 DataPorium figure uses the 2023 population estimate, the latest available for that year [1].
On DataPorium's count, turnout fell 8.7 points from the 2016 presidential election to the 2018 midterm and 20.8 points from 2020 to 2022 [1]. On the Census measure, the drops were 8.0 points and 14.6 points [2][3][5]. The two midterms were also unusual by their own standards: the Census Bureau described 2018 as the highest midterm turnout in four decades, about 11 points above 2014, and 2022 as the second-highest for a nonpresidential year since 2000 [6][7].
The 39 states leave out Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia, which lack a governor or Senate result in DataPorium's turnout data for at least one of the five years [1]. Including every state measured in each year gives similar totals: 60.9% in 2016 (51 jurisdictions), 51.9% in 2018 (47 states), 67.9% in 2020, 46.8% in 2022 (42 states) and 65.0% in 2024 [1].
What do VAP, CVAP, VEP and registered-voter turnout mean?
A turnout rate is votes divided by a population, and the choice of population changes the answer. The four common denominators are:
- Voting-age population (VAP): every resident aged 18 or older, including noncitizens who cannot vote. It gives the lowest rate.
- Citizen voting-age population (CVAP): U.S. citizens aged 18 or older. Both DataPorium and the Census Bureau use this base [1][2].
- Voting-eligible population (VEP): citizens of voting age, minus people barred from voting (for example, because of a felony conviction in some states), plus eligible citizens living overseas. Researchers use it to get closer to the true eligible pool.
- Registered voters: people on the voter rolls. Turnout of registered voters is always the highest of the four because unregistered citizens are left out.
The Census Bureau's 2016 report shows how much the base matters: the same 137.5 million voters equaled 56.0% of the voting-age population, 61.4% of the citizen voting-age population and 87.3% of registered voters [8]. The gap between DataPorium's 2022 figure (46.9%) and the Census figure (52.2%) also has a method behind it: DataPorium counts votes actually recorded in one race, while the Census figure is based on what survey respondents say [1][2].
Which states had the highest and lowest midterm turnout?
The same states sit near the top in both midterms. Minnesota led in 2018 with 64.3% of its citizen voting-age population voting, followed by Colorado (63.5%), Montana (62.7%), Oregon (62.6%) and Wisconsin (61.5%) [1]. In 2022, Maine (61.5%) and Oregon (61.5%) led, followed by Wisconsin (59.4%), Minnesota (59.3%) and Colorado (58.8%) [1].
At the other end, Hawaii had the lowest measured turnout in 2018 at 38.4%, followed by West Virginia (40.4%), Arkansas (40.5%), Mississippi (42.0%) and Oklahoma (42.1%) [1]. In 2022 the lowest were Alabama (37.0%), Indiana (37.1%), Hawaii (39.3%), Oklahoma (40.0%) and Louisiana (40.0%) [1].
| State | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 74.0% | 64.3% | 79.7% | 59.3% | 77.1% |
| Pennsylvania | 62.9% | 51.4% | 70.7% | 54.0% | 70.8% |
| Georgia | 58.3% | 54.1% | 66.8% | 51.2% | 67.9% |
| Florida | 66.4% | 55.9% | 72.4% | 49.5% | 68.6% |
| New York | 57.3% | 53.0% | 62.4% | 43.4% | 58.6% |
| Texas | 52.2% | 46.9% | 60.9% | 42.3% | 58.5% |
| California | 57.7% | 49.4% | 67.9% | 41.9% | 60.9% |
| Hawaii | 43.4% | 38.4% | 56.3% | 39.3% | 49.2% |
Source: DataPorium Election Results, turnout as a share of citizen voting-age population, votes in each state's highest-turnout statewide race [1].
Which states saw the biggest drop from presidential to midterm turnout?
Turnout fell in every measured state between each presidential election and the next midterm [1]. The size of the drop varied widely.
From 2020 to 2022
Across 42 states, the median drop was 20.4 points [1]. The largest were in California (67.9% to 41.9%, down 26.0 points), Alabama (62.6% to 37.0%, down 25.6), Idaho (69.1% to 43.9%, down 25.2), Maryland (70.4% to 45.4%, down 25.0) and Indiana (61.5% to 37.1%, down 24.4) [1]. The smallest were in South Dakota (down 12.2 points), Arkansas (down 14.5), Oklahoma (down 14.7), Oregon (down 14.9) and Maine and New Mexico (each down 15.0) [1].
From 2016 to 2018
Across 47 states, the median drop was 9.5 points, less than half the 2020 to 2022 decline [1]. New Hampshire fell the most (72.4% to 54.7%, down 17.7 points), followed by Massachusetts (down 14.6) and Maine (down 13.5); Montana fell the least, 1.8 points, from 64.5% to 62.7% [1].
Midterm to midterm
Comparing the two midterms directly, turnout in 2022 was below 2018 in most of the 39 states measured in both years, with a median change of minus 4.1 points [1]. North Dakota had the largest decline (58.0% to 41.7%, down 16.3 points) [1]. Turnout rose in six states, led by Pennsylvania (51.4% to 54.0%, up 2.6 points), New Hampshire (up 2.1) and Maine (up 1.6) [1]. State-by-state results are on the DataPorium election results pages [1].
Several factors that differ by state affect these comparisons: which races are on the ballot, how competitive they are, and the rules for registration and mail voting. DataPorium's measure also depends on the top race in each state, so a state with an uncontested or low-profile governor or Senate race can show lower turnout than its total ballots would suggest [1].
Frequently asked questions
Why is turnout lower in midterm elections?
No presidential race is on the ballot, and the top race in many states draws fewer voters. In 39 states DataPorium measures, turnout dropped from 67.7% in 2020 to 46.9% in 2022 [1].
What was voter turnout in the 2022 midterms?
The Census Bureau reported that 52.2% of the citizen voting-age population voted in 2022, down from 53.4% in 2018 [2]. DataPorium's count of votes in each state's top race equals 46.9% across 39 states [1].
Which state has the highest midterm turnout?
Minnesota had the highest measured turnout in 2018 at 64.3%, and Maine had the highest in 2022 at 61.5%, just ahead of Oregon [1].
What is the citizen voting-age population?
It is the number of U.S. citizens aged 18 and older. In 2016, 61.4% of that population voted, compared with 56.0% of all voting-age residents [8].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Election Results (turnout by state as a share of citizen voting-age population, 2016 to 2024)
- [2] U.S. Census Bureau, Census Bureau Releases 2022 Congressional Election Voting Report (April 23, 2024)
- [3] U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Presidential Election Voting and Registration Tables Now Available (April 29, 2021)
- [4] U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 Presidential Election Voting and Registration Tables Now Available (April 30, 2025)
- [5] U.S. Census Bureau, Voting in America, A Look at the 2016 Presidential Election (May 10, 2017)
- [6] U.S. Census Bureau, Voter Turnout Rates Among All Voting Age and Major Racial and Ethnic Groups Were Higher Than in 2014 (April 23, 2019)
- [7] U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Voting and Registration Data Now Available (May 2, 2023)
- [8] U.S. Census Bureau, Characteristics of Voters in the Presidential Election of 2016, P20-582 (September 2018)
