The Tampa housing market is cooling slowly rather than breaking. As of June 30, 2026, the Zillow Home Value Index for the Tampa, FL metro was $358,855, down 2.9% from $369,535 a year earlier and 0.2% below May [1]. Typical rents were nearly flat at $1,997, active inventory of 22,488 homes was 8.2% lower than in June 2025, and 31% of listings carried a price cut [1]. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.55% in the week ending July 16, 2026, the monthly cost of buying the typical Tampa home is about 6% lower than a year ago, which gives patient buyers more room than they have had since 2021 [2].
Tampa housing market: how much have home values fallen?
The metro-wide typical home value (all homes, smoothed and seasonally adjusted) was $358,855 in June 2026, against $369,535 in June 2025 and $364,097 in August 2025 [1]. The month-to-month change was small: $359,690 in May to $358,855 in June, a 0.2% dip [1]. The 12-month decline is therefore modest and slowing, not accelerating.
The weakness is concentrated in condos. Single-family home values fell 2.7% to $374,818, the bottom third of the market fell 3.8% to $234,575, and the top third fell 2.7% to $586,508 [1]. Condo and co-op values dropped 9.6% to $196,502 from $217,342, a much larger decline than any other segment, as higher association fees and insurance costs weigh on older coastal buildings [1]. The median sale price moved the other way, rising to $375,000 in June 2026 from $357,000 in June 2025, which suggests that the homes actually selling are larger or better located than the typical home in the index [1].
What a buyer pays each month
Lower prices and slightly lower rates have improved affordability. Zillow's estimated principal-and-interest payment on the typical Tampa home with 20% down was $1,813 in June 2026, down 6.1% from $1,931 in June 2025 [1]. Including taxes and insurance, the total monthly payment with 20% down was $2,568, versus $2,685 a year earlier [1]. The national 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.55% in the week ending July 16, 2026, compared with 6.75% in the same week of 2025 [2].
Tampa rents and rent yield in 2026
Rents have stopped rising but have not fallen much. The Zillow Observed Rent Index for all homes and apartments in the Tampa metro was $1,997 in June 2026, 0.7% below the $2,011 of June 2025 [1]. The split by property type is telling: single-family rents rose 1.1% to $2,402, while apartment rents fell 1.9% to $1,793 as new multifamily supply was absorbed [1].
For investors, the gross rent yield is the first screen. Twelve months of single-family rent at $2,402 equals $28,827, or about 7.7% of the $374,818 typical single-family value [1]. That is a higher starting yield than most large metros, but Florida carrying costs take a large share of it. DataPorium's property tax data shows median effective rates of 1.15% in ZIP 33629 (South Tampa), 1.26% in 33606 (Hyde Park), 1.53% in 33647 (New Tampa), 1.62% in 33543 (Wesley Chapel) and 0.85% in 34606 (Spring Hill) [4]. Insurance, which is not in the tax figure, further separates gross yield from net return.
Inventory, days on market and price cuts
Supply is high by Tampa standards but shrinking. Active for-sale inventory was 22,488 homes in June 2026, down 8.2% from 24,505 in June 2025, and it has drifted lower since the 24,519 peak of July 2025 [1]. Homes are still moving at a normal pace: the median listing took 34 days to go pending in June 2026, the same as a year earlier and far faster than the 50 days recorded in January 2026 [1]. Sellers are still adjusting expectations, with 31% of listings showing a price cut in June, down from 35% in June 2025 [1]. Zillow's market heat index for Tampa read 44 in June 2026, one point above the 43 of a year earlier, which describes a balanced market that leans slightly toward buyers [1].
- Active listings: 22,488 in June 2026, versus 24,505 in June 2025 [1]
- Median days to pending: 34, unchanged from a year earlier [1]
- Share of listings with a price cut: 31%, versus 35% a year earlier [1]
- Median sale price: $375,000, versus $357,000 a year earlier [1]
Which Tampa Bay ZIP codes are the most and least expensive?
The Tampa metro covers Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties, and the price spread across it is wide. The table shows Zillow's smoothed typical home value by ZIP code for June 2026 with the median effective property tax rate for each area from DataPorium [1][4].
| ZIP code | Area | Typical home value, June 2026 | Median effective property tax |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33629 | South Tampa (Palma Ceia, Sunset Park) | $1,028,586 | 1.15% |
| 33606 | Hyde Park, Davis Islands | $848,979 | 1.26% |
| 33704 | St. Petersburg (Old Northeast, Snell Isle) | $729,007 | 1.07% |
| 33767 | Clearwater Beach | $697,163 | 1.66% |
| 33647 | New Tampa | $466,954 | 1.53% |
| 33543 | Wesley Chapel | $408,974 | 1.62% |
| 33578 | Riverview | $336,536 | 1.51% |
| 33612 | North Tampa (University area) | $296,712 | 1.15% |
| 33605 | Ybor City, East Tampa | $261,061 | 1.30% |
| 34668 | Port Richey | $228,689 | 1.11% |
| 34690 | Holiday | $219,596 | 1.25% |
The most expensive ZIP in the sample, 33629, is worth almost five times the least expensive, 34690 in western Pasco County [1]. The middle of the table is where most of the metro's growth is happening: New Tampa, Wesley Chapel and Riverview are master-planned suburbs where values sit near or above the metro average and where property tax rates run highest, partly because community development district assessments are included in the effective rate [1][4]. Investors can compare these and every other ZIP on DataPorium's housing market data, which carries Zillow values, rents and inventory at the state, metro, city and ZIP levels [1].
Population, income and what it means for buyers and investors
Demand fundamentals remain firm. The Census Bureau estimates the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro population at 3,418,895 as of July 2025, up from 3,405,357 in 2024 and 3,230,962 in 2021, a 5.8% gain in four years [3]. Inside the city of Tampa, the 2024 American Community Survey shows a median household income of $75,475, a population of 401,618 and a homeownership rate of 50.3% [4]. Rising incomes and slipping prices are how affordability gets repaired without a policy fix.
Tampa is a market where prices are drifting lower while rents hold and population keeps growing, which favors buyers who can wait and investors who underwrite conservatively.
For buyers, the practical reading is that a 34-day median time to pending means good homes still sell, but 31% of listings with price cuts and 22,000 active homes give room to negotiate [1]. The counterpoint is that condo values are still falling fast, so buyers in that segment carry more price risk than single-family buyers. For investors, a 7.7% gross single-family yield is attractive on paper, but flat rents, property taxes above 1.5% in the growth suburbs and rising insurance mean underwriting should assume no rent growth for the next year [1][4]. Zillow's rolling 12-month home value forecast for the metro is updated each month and shown next to the current values on the DataPorium market page [1]. Property-level detail is available through DataPorium's real estate module [4].
Key takeaways
- Tampa's typical home value was $358,855 in June 2026, down 2.9% year over year and 0.2% from May [1].
- Condo values fell 9.6% to $196,502, while single-family values fell 2.7% to $374,818 [1].
- Typical rent was $1,997, down 0.7%, and the gross single-family rent yield is about 7.7% [1].
- Inventory of 22,488 homes is 8.2% below a year ago; 31% of listings had a price cut and the median time to pending was 34 days [1].
- Metro population reached 3,418,895 in 2025, and the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.55% in mid-July 2026 [2][3].
Frequently asked questions
Are home prices dropping in Tampa in 2026?
Yes, but slowly. The Zillow Home Value Index for the Tampa metro was $358,855 in June 2026, 2.9% below June 2025, with condos down 9.6% and single-family homes down 2.7% [1].
What is the average rent in Tampa in 2026?
The typical asking rent across all homes and apartments in the Tampa metro was $1,997 per month in June 2026, down 0.7% from a year earlier; the typical single-family rental was $2,402 [1].
Is Tampa a buyer's market right now?
It is balanced with a slight lean toward buyers: about 22,500 active listings, a 34-day median time to pending, 31% of listings with a price cut and a market heat index of 44 in June 2026 [1].
What is the most expensive ZIP code in Tampa?
Among the ZIPs reviewed, 33629 in South Tampa had the highest typical home value at about $1.03 million in June 2026, followed by 33606 (Hyde Park and Davis Islands) at about $849,000 [1].
Sources & References
- [1] DataPorium Housing Market Insights (Zillow ZHVI, ZORI, inventory and market data)
- [2] Freddie Mac via FRED: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US)
- [3] U.S. Census Bureau via FRED: Resident Population in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL (MSA) (TMAPOP)
- [4] DataPorium Real Estate: property tax, demographics and neighborhood data
